Keith Law on Mariners: A big free agent and trade partner who fit

On Tuesday afternoon, Keith Law took a swing at the question Seattle baseball fans are awaiting the answer to this winter: How do you fix the Mariners?

A daunting task? Not in Law’s eyes.

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“On some level, they’re one of the ‘easiest’ teams to fix because they just kind of need offense almost everywhere, right?” Law, a senior baseball writer for The Athletic, told Seattle Sports’ Wyman and Bob.

That’s certainly true in the infield, and Law sees a fit with the player he ranked 19th on his top 50 free agent list for this offseason, Arizona first baseman Christian Walker.

“Age-wise, he’s definitely past peak, but he has been a very productive, very, very consistent offensive performer,” Law said. “A really solid defensive first baseman where the underlying data, the batted ball data, the stuff you’re finding on Baseball Savant all says to me he’s going to hold this level of production for at least a couple of years. You’re not giving him five years (on a contract), but maybe you’re giving him three years and paying him pretty handsomely. I think he’s worth it.”

If “past peak” raises an eyebrow, the key with Walker is the offensive consistency. The Mariners wouldn’t be looking for a bounceback with Walker as they have been with any number of hitters they have acquired recently – a path Law believes is fine in most years but one they should avoid this winter. Walker slashed .251/.335/.468 for an .803 OPS in 2024 with 26 home runs, and also won his third straight National League Gold Glove at first base at the age of 33.

“I’m not sure I’d recommend the Mariners go that route. They need some certainty,” he said. “They need to pay for consistency for a very high likelihood that the player will produce as expected right now, because really, the goal should be to win in 2025 because they have a great rotation and you don’t want to waste it.”

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Law believes there are multiple free agents that could help the Mariners and doesn’t think the challenges T-Mobile Park presents hitters has to be an obstacle in signing them.

“You just have to pay or offer more than everybody else, and then you get your guy and Seattle should be able to do that with some free agents,” he said. “It’s not like they’ve never done that, but they haven’t done it for an impact bat in the last couple of years. If they are willing to put the money out there, they’ll get their guy, and they have to choose wisely. You can’t be going after the Mitch Hanigers. You’ve got to aim a little bit higher there and then you have to be willing to commit and stomach the risk.”

The trade route

As for trades, the more comfortable vehicle of acquisition for Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto, Law sees opportunity.

“There have been rumors for at least a year that they and the Orioles might line up on a pitching-for-hitting trade, and that still kind of makes sense,” he said. “The Orioles have too many young hitters, especially left-handed corner bats. The Mariners have a strength in pitching they they could line up there if they don’t want to spend the money. Maybe they could trade for a Ryan Mountcastle or Ryan O’Hearn, or even a prospect like a Coby Mayo (the Orioles’ top prospect per MLB Pipeline) to try to address some of their offensive deficiencies. Because even though none of those players are stars, they would all make the Mariners better.”

Law sees the Mariners in an excellent position to make an impact trade.

“They’ve drafted exceptionally well in the last five or six years. They’ve become quietly one of the better drafting organizations in the game,” he said. “They’ve had a great run with pitching. They’ve developed a lot of pitching and they do have, I think, a little bit of a surplus that they could trade from. They have not had the same level of success developing hitters. They have some guys coming.

“If we have this conversation a year from now, I might feel somewhat differently when Colt Emerson is maybe not in the majors but he’s almost there, Felnin Celesten in full-season ball. They have a lot of hitting prospects they really like. I just don’t think any of them is going to impact the club next year, and that’s why I say they may be in a position to trade one of their starting pitchers to go get some offensive help, especially if they don’t want to spend in the more expensive part of the free agent pool.”

You can hear the full Wyman and Bob conversation with senior baseball writer Keith Law of The Athletic in the podcast at this link or in the player near the top of this post. Catch Wyman and Bob from 2-7 p.m. weekdays on Seattle Sports.

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