Playoff Race Update: Can Mariners still win a wild card?
Sep 25, 2024, 6:28 PM | Updated: 8:22 pm
The Seattle Mariners outfielders celebrate their Sept. 25, 2024 win over the Houston Astros. (Tim Warner/Getty Images)
(Tim Warner/Getty Images)
The Seattle Mariners bought themselves some time with an 8-1 win over the Houston Astros, but their playoff hopes still dimmed in a big way Wednesday with just four days and three games to go in their season.
Julio reaches 20-20, Mariners keep fighting with 8-1 win over Astros
The M’s improved to 82-77 by winning their final road series of the year, guaranteeing their fourth straight winning season. But Seattle now at best can finish with 85 wins, and that’s not ideal considering where their competition for the American League’s last two wild cards to the playoffs sit.
The Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals currently own those two wild card spots, and both won Wednesday night. That puts them tied with matching 84-74 records, which means trouble for the Mariners.
Both the Tigers and Royals can get to 85 wins on Thursday, and if they do, the M’s will take the field for their series opener against Oakland with nothing to play for. And even if either the Tigers or Royals lose on Thursday, a single Mariners loss in their three games against the A’s would eliminate them from contention.
If Seattle’s record ties the Tigers or Royals when all is said in done, the Mariners will lose the tiebreaker either due to head-to-head record (Detroit), or when it comes to Kansas City, having a worse record in their own division (Seattle and Kansas City split the season series). You can thank the league-worst White Sox for that last part, as the Royals beat Chicago all but once in their 13 meetings.
The Mariners won’t have to wait long Thursday to know where they sit for Friday, as both the Royals-Nationals and Tigers-Rays games start around 10 a.m. in Seattle.
Fangraphs’ playoff odds for the Mariners is now down to just 1.7%.
One other team remains in the mix for the wild cards: the Minnesota Twins (82-76), who stayed a half-game ahead of the Mariners by beating Miami on Wednesday night.
What’s left
The Mariners wrap up the season with three games at home against the Oakland Athletics (68-89), who Seattle has a 6-4 record against this year.
The Royals have one more game against the Washington Nationals (69-89) on Thursday before three games this weekend at Atlanta (86-71).
The Tigers wrap up Thursday with the Rays (78-80), then welcome the White Sox (37-120) to Comerica Park.
The Twins will follow a Thursday series finale against the Marlins (58-99) by hosting the Baltimore Orioles (87-70), the AL’s top wild card, for three games.
Mariners’ final series
Catch the Mariners Radio Network broadcast of each game on Seattle Sports 710 AM and the Seattle Sports app, as well as KIRO Newsradio 97.3 FM (play-by-play only) for Sunday’s game.
• Friday vs. Athletics – 7:10 p.m. (pregame 6 p.m.)
• Saturday vs. Athletics – 6:40 p.m. (pregame 5:30 p.m.)
• Sunday vs. Athletics – 12:10 p.m. (pregame 11 a.m., Trident Talk 10 a.m.)
For details on how to hear Mariners radio broadcasts from Seattle Sports, click here.
More on the Seattle Mariners
• Astros overcome terrible start to clinch AL West with win over Mariners
• Bryce Miller’s big leap has been ‘awesome to watch,’ says MLB insider
• Why have Mariners been AL’s best offense this month? Passan weighs in
• How Mariners are still alive in uphill battle for playoff berth
• Seattle Mariners’ Julio Rodríguez named AL Player of the Week
