Bryce Miller’s big leap has been ‘awesome to watch,’ says MLB insider

Sep 24, 2024, 2:08 PM

Bryce Miller of the Seattle Mariners throws a pitch during a 2024 game. (Alika Jenner/Getty Images)

(Alika Jenner/Getty Images)

BY ZAC HERETH

Seattle Sports

It’s been quite a rise to prominence for Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Bryce Miller.

Why have Mariners been AL’s best offense this month? Passan weighs in

Miller was a fourth-round draft pick just three years ago. Yet, he’s already become one the better pitchers in the league.

The latter is the result a massive leap by the Texas native in his second big league season. After posting solid numbers in 2023, the 26-year-old Miller has turned the potential he flashed into a breakout sophomore campaign.

With seven shutout innings in Monday’s win over the Houston Astros, Miller improved to 12-8 and lowered his ERA 2.94, which is the best among M’s starters and fourth in the American League. He’s also posted a stingy 0.98 WHIP and is allowing opponents to hit just .200 over a career-high 180 1/3 innings pitched.

“Frankly, I think (he) has been better this year than other organizations expected,” ESPN MLB insider Jeff Passan told Seattle Sports’ Brock and Salk on Tuesday. “The Bryce Miller leap this year has been kind of awesome to watch.”

The evolution

Miller’s latest outing is a prime example of the difference between his rookie and second seasons in MLB.

The four-seam fastball that helped his fast track to the majors was used prominently, but his improved secondary arsenal was the difference-maker against Houston.

With the bases loaded with one out in the bottom of the seventh inning, Miller threw 12 straight non-fastballs to induce two strikeouts (both on his splitter) and escape with a 2-0 lead intact.

Of the 20 whiffs Miller generated throughout the game, 13 were on offspeed or breaking pitches. Five of those came on the splitter, which has become Miller’s top pitch since adding it in the offseason. Batters are hitting just .148 with a .225 slugging percentage off the pitch.

The splitter has been most effective in helping Miller against left-handed batters. Lefties torched the right-hander with a .303 average and .558 slugging percentage last season, but are hitting just .208 and slugging .389 against him in 2024.

It’s also helped his four-seam fastball play up, as opponents are hitting just .184 and slugging .384 off the four-seamer compared to .256 and .450 in 2023

“It’s been a big pitch for me. Righties and lefties, it’s been good all year, just that combined with the improvements of all my offspeed,” Miller said after Monday’s win. “(I) threw a lot of offspeeds later in the game, and last year I couldn’t do that. So it’s big (for) getting through the lineup for the third time and getting deep into games and executing in big moments.”

Overall, there’s been a big year-over-year shift in Miller’s pitch repertoire. Miller ditched his changeup and added the splitter in its place. He is still throwing more than 60% fastballs overall, but it’s come with far less four-seamers. Miller’s percentage of sinkers thrown has more than doubled from 7.6 to 17.1, and he’s added a cutter that he occasionally uses.

It has all helped lead to a stellar season. According to Baseball Savant, Miller’s fastball run value ranks in the 97th percentile and his offspeed (which includes the splitter) in the 99th.

“Bryce Miller to me is one of those examples of why projection systems are hard for me,” Seattle Sports’ Mike Salk said during the conversation with Passan. “… I think it’s an incredible challenge that they’ve taken on and a worthy one, but there’s just no way to account for a guy listening and learning from the people around him and developing a new pitch that gets lefties out and completely changes who he is as a pitcher.”

Listen to Tuesday’s conversation with ESPN MLB insider Jeff Passan in the podcast near the top of this post or at this link. Tune in to Brock and Salk weekdays from 6-10 a.m. or find the podcast on the Seattle Sports app.