The Final Push: What the Mariners are up against in last week
Sep 22, 2024, 9:47 PM | Updated: 10:01 pm
Randy Arozarena of the Seattle Mariners makes a catch on Sept. 22, 2024. (Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images)
(Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images)
The Seattle Mariners go into the last week of the season still alive for a playoff spot, but the hill they need to climb to reach the postseason is steep.
And it would have been a lot less so if the M’s hadn’t missed a golden opportunity on Sunday.
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There are six games remaining for the Mariners, who enter Monday with an 80-76 record. But their 6-5 loss to the Texas Rangers on a walkoff single by Marcus Semien from Sunday looms large, for a few reasons.
First, the Mariners led that game 5-0 at one point, so that’s a tough pill to swallow, especially as it was the second time in a 10-game stretch that Seattle lost in the late innings to Texas (a team that is now eliminated from postseason contention) in a game that it had led by three runs or more.
Second, and much more importantly, the Mariners would have been that much closer in races for three different American League playoff spots if they had won Sunday since the Houston Astros, Kansas City Royals and Minnesota Twins (twice) all lost Sunday.
MLB division standings | Wild card standings
Seattle is two games back of both the Detroit Tigers and Kansas City, who at 82-74 are tied for the last two wild cards in the AL. The Mariners also have Minnesota (81-75) to worry about, who are a game ahead of Seattle and a game back of Detroit and Kansas City. The really crucial part is the M’s lost the season series against Detroit and Minnesota, so in the event of a tie at the end of the season with either of them, the Mariners would lose out. As for the Royals, the M’s tied the season series with them, so the next tiebreaker would be their records against their own division opponents, which Seattle would lose with even one loss this week.
The Twins have been in a free fall, going 6-13 over their last 19 games, including a pair of losses Sunday in a doubleheader against Boston. The Royals have been even worse, as they’re on their second seven-game losing streak in less than a month during a 7-16 stretch. But even with an 11-6 record since Sept. 4, the Mariners haven’t been able to capitalize like the surging Tigers have, with Detroit on a 20-8 run since Aug. 23.
What about the AL West race? Well, that’s shaping up to be another area of missed opportunity for the M’s. They’re five games back of the Houston Astros (85-71), who they just so happen to be matched up against for the next three days in Texas. If the Mariners can’t sweep the series on the road, they’ll have to watch Houston celebrate clinching its seventh division title in eight years. That 10-game lead that Seattle had in June seems like ages ago now.
How can the Seattle Mariners make the playoffs?
Let’s boil it down to some simple scenarios.
• To take the AL West, Seattle needs to win at least five more times than the Astros do over the final six games – so there is essentially no room for error in this case. If the Mariners are somehow able to do that, they would take the season series over Houston (they enter Monday with a 6-4 record this year against the Astros), clinching a tiebreaker over the Astros along the way.
• To earn a wild card, the Mariners need to do at least two of these this week:
– Win at least two more games than the Twins.
– Win at least three more games than the Royals.
– Win at least three more games than the Tigers.
It’s worth noting that both the Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays are also alive in the race for the wild cards at 78-78.
Who plays who?
The Mariners have three games at Houston, then finish up with a three-game home series against Oakland (67-89).
The Astros play the AL Central champion Guardians (90-67) in Cleveland for three games after their series with the Mariners.
The Twins host Miami (57-99) for three games, then Baltimore (86-70), the likely first AL wild card winner.
The Royals are at Washington (69-87) and Atlanta (85-71) to wrap up the regular season.
The Tigers play the Rays in Detroit, then welcome the MLB-worst White Sox (36-120) to town.
The Rays go to Boston after the series with the Tigers.
The Red Sox are at Toronto (73-83) before the series with the Rays.
More on the Seattle Mariners
• Video: Red-hot Julio torments Texas with another home run
• Mariners’ Dan Wilson: Julio apologized for baserunning gaffe
• Five Mariners prospects who raised stock with big seasons in minors
• J.P. Crawford helping make a path to big leagues for young players
• Passan interested in future of Seattle Mariners’ ‘enigmatic’ Arozarena
