Mariners Breakdown: An updated look at the playoff picture

After a disastrous baserunning mistake cost them in Wednesday night’s extra-inning loss, the Seattle Mariners rebounded with a 3-2 win over the New York Yankees on Thursday afternoon to avoid a three-game sweep.

The victory kept kept Seattle on the fringe of playoff contention with nine games to go.

Mariners’ Dan Wilson: Julio apologized for baserunning gaffe

The Mariners (78-75) trail the first-place Houston Astros by 4.5 games in the American League West. They also trail the Detroit Tigers and Minnesota Twins by two games for the AL’s third and final wild card spot. The Kansas City Royals currently hold the second wild card spot, sitting two games ahead of Detroit and Minnesota and four games in front of Seattle.

MLB standings

The Mariners still have a three-game series against the Astros next week in Houston. In order to have any shot at the AL West crown, they would need to sweep that series. One sliver of good news is that Seattle currently holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Astros, having gone 6-4 against them this year. So if the Mariners were to pull off a sweep and remain in contention for the division title, they could win the AL West by finishing tied with Houston.

Seattle doesn’t hold that luxury in the wild card race. The Mariners went 2-5 against Minnesota and 1-5 against Detroit, so both teams hold the tiebreaker over them. That means Seattle would need to finish with a better record than both teams in order to claim the final wild card spot.

According to Fangraphs, the Mariners’ playoff odds are down to 5.3%. They have just a 2.2% chance of winning the division and a 3.1% chance of earning a wild card berth.

“At the end of the day, we’ve gotta win the games that are in front of us,” Seattle starting pitcher Logan Gilbert said after Thursday’s win. “We’ve had a bunch of ups and downs this year. Everybody knows that. But as an athlete, it has to be so short memory, and this next game is the only game that matters. It does us no good to look back and talk about what could have been. Right now we have a chance, and that’s what we’ve gotta capitalize on.”

Breaking down the remaining schedules

Here’s a look at the remaining schedules for both the Mariners and the teams they’re chasing:

Seattle Mariners

• 3 games at Texas Rangers (73-80)
• 3 games at Houston Astros (82-70)
• 3 games vs. Oakland Athletics (67-86)

Houston Astros

• 4 games vs. Los Angeles Angels (62-90)
• 3 games vs. Seattle Mariners (78-75)
• 3 games at Cleveland Guardians (89-65)

Minnesota Twins

• 3 games at Boston Red Sox (76-76)
• 3 games vs. Miami Marlins (56-97)
• 3 games vs. Baltimore Orioles (85-68)

Detroit Tigers

• 3 games at Baltimore Orioles (85-68)
• 3 games vs. Tampa Bay Rays (74-78)
• 3 games vs. Chicago White Sox (36-117)

More on the Seattle Mariners

• Five Mariners prospects who raised stock with big seasons in minors
• Passan interested in future of Mariners’ ‘enigmatic’ Randy Arozarena
• Seattle Mariners’ Victor Robles is on fire – but he’s also banged up
• J.P. Crawford helping make a path to big leagues for young players

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