2 Takes: Predicting the Seahawks’ record, key stats, and more

Sep 7, 2024, 11:11 AM | Updated: 12:19 pm

Seattle Seahawks Geno Smith passes Washington Commanders 2023...

Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith looks to pass during a 2023 game. (Steph Chambers/Getty Images)

(Steph Chambers/Getty Images)

Staff report

The Seattle Seahawks kick off the Mike Macdonald era on Sunday afternoon, when they host the Denver Broncos in their much-anticipated season opener at Lumen Field.

What makes Seahawks under-the-radar candidates for big season

After eight months of intrigue and speculation as to what the Seahawks will look like under their new head coach, the grand unveiling is finally here.

Ahead of the opener, SeattleSports.com writers Zac Hereth and Cameron Van Til give their season predictions on the Seahawks’ win-loss record, who will lead the team in key statistical categories, and more.

Where will the Seahawks rank in scoring offense?

Zac Hereth: 10th. The Seahawks have the playmakers at the skill positions to be even better than this, but the offensive line remains a big question mark. If that group can take a sizeable step forward, this could definitely be a unit that pushes for top-five status, especially if the defense can get off the field quicker. It’s fair to be a little hesitant about this group with a first-time NFL offensive coordinator calling the plays, but Ryan Grubb seems like an upgrade from Shane Waldron regardless.

Cameron Van Til: 6th. This all hinges on the offensive line staying healthy and playing closer to a league-average level. But with the addition of standout center Connor Williams, a potential third-year leap from left tackle Charles Cross and a better contingency plan at right guard behind the sidelined Abraham Lucas, there’s reason to believe the O-line can indeed be much more competent. If so, the combination of Grubb, Geno Smith and a plethora of skill-position talent should allow this offense to soar. Keep in mind, the 2022 Seahawks finished 10th in scoring. This year’s group can be among the league’s best, assuming the O-line improves.

Where will the Seahawks rank in scoring defense?

Hereth: 18th. It felt like Seattle never played up to the sum of its parts defensively last season, and Mike Macdonald’s vaunted defensive scheme should help that. But the Seahawks also face a number of challenging offenses this season, with four games against top-five scoring teams from 2023. The NFC West alone will present its rigors with the 49ers, Rams and what should be a much-improved Cardinals offense.

Van Til: 14th. If not for the schedule, I would predict the defense to make an even bigger jump from last year’s No. 24 ranking. It might take some time for the unit to fully hit its stride, but I think this group has more talent than people realize, and Macdonald’s cutting-edge scheme should put that talent in position to shine. Just as important, the Macdonald effect should help cut down on the all-too-frequent communication issues that plagued this defense in recent years. However, just look at the opposing offenses on Seattle’s schedule: the 49ers twice, the Dolphins, the Lions, the Bills, the Packers and the Rams twice. That’s enough to keep the unit from pushing for top-10 status.

How will the yardage shake out for the top three receivers?

Hereth: DK Metcalf 1,200 yards, Jaxon Smith-Njigba 1,040 yards, Tyler Lockett 610 yards. Those totals would mean an uptick in production from Metcalf and Smith-Njigba, and a decline for Lockett. Metcalf could be in line for one of his best seasons in Grubb’s offense, but I don’t quite expect him to surpass his career-high of 1,303 yards from 2020 due to the array of weapons in Seattle’s current offense. Meanwhile, Smith-Njigba should pass up Lockett for the No. 2 receiving role and take a big step forward in his sophomore season.

Van Til: DK Metcalf 1,250 yards, Jaxon Smith-Njigba 980 yards, Tyler Lockett 685 yards. The passing attack looks primed for a massive year. In Grubb’s scheme, I think Metcalf will have his most efficient and consistent season so far. I expect Smith-Njigba to take the second-year leap so many are projecting. And although the 31-year-old Lockett is likely past his prime athletically, his savviness should allow him to remain highly effective. I’d predict even higher numbers for Metcalf and JSN if they were on most other teams, but Seattle’s wealth of playmakers will result in the targets being spread around.

Who will lead the team in sacks?

Hereth: Boye Mafe. Uchenna Nwosu would be the pick here if he wasn’t dealing with an MCL sprain that has him out for Week 1 and potentially longer, but Mafe seems like a top candidate to break out for a massive season. The third-year pro flashed his potential with nine sacks last season, and he has plenty of room to keep growing. If Macdonald could get nine sacks from 32-year-old Kyle Van Noy in Baltimore last season, I don’t see why Mafe couldn’t push for 12 or more in 2024.

Van Til: Boye Mafe. I think the versatility of Macdonald’s scheme will lead to the sacks being pretty well dispersed, so a handful of players have the potential to push for the team lead. I also would’ve picked Nwosu if he was healthy, but without knowing how much time he’ll miss and whether the injury will have any lingering effects once he returns, Mafe seems like the safest bet after recording a team-high nine sacks last season.

Who will lead the team in interceptions?

Hereth: Riq Woolen. After a brilliant rookie season in 2022, Woolen took a bit of a step back in 2023, but it feels as if that step back has been a bit overexaggerated at times. The third-year pro still possess all the physical tools needed to be a standout player, and teams may give him more opportunities to make plays after Devon Witherspoon’s emergence last season. Plus, he’s seemed pretty motivated to silence his doubters.

Van Til: Julian Love. I think Witherspoon and Woolen will be Seattle’s two best defensive players. Both have superstar potential with their unique skill sets. But I think Love, who had a team-high four picks during a Pro Bowl campaign last season, will lead the team in interceptions again. The sixth-year safety has the type of versatility that makes him a great match for Macdonald’s scheme, which should give him ample opportunities to roam the field and make plays on the ball, especially if Witherspoon and Woolen are locking up the opponents’ top wideouts.

Give us one bold prediction

Hereth: Geno Smith will lead the NFC in passing TDs. This prediction may not be as far-fetched as it sounds, because Smith actually did lead the NFC with 30 passing touchdowns in 2022. He had just 20 last season, but some of that can be attributed to Seattle’s conservative play calling in the red zone. The Seahawks were very run-heavy in the red zone under Waldron last season, and it resulted one of the league’s worst red-zone offenses. I expect Grubb to take advantage of big-bodied receivers like Metcalf, Jake Bobo and Noah Fant more often in those situations.

Van Til: Noah Fant and Jake Bobo will combine for eight TD catches. This might be a little too ambitious, but that’s the point of a bold prediction, right? Fant hasn’t replicated the production he had in Denver since coming to Seattle in 2022, but I expect that to change in Grubb’s scheme. And after a pair of TD receptions as an undrafted rookie last year, Bobo continued to show a knack for making tough catches during training camp and joint practices. With Seattle’s top three receivers drawing significant attention, the 6-foot-4 frames of Fant and Bobo make for ideal red-zone targets.

What will be the Seahawks’ win-loss record?

Hereth: 9-8. It’s tempting to go higher here, but the Seahawks are ultimately still heading into this season with a first-time head coach and two first-time NFL coordinators. Some growing pains should certainly be expected. It doesn’t help that NFC West also looks tough. It’s the same win total as last year, but this will be a better a nine-win team.

Van Til: 10-7. I expect both the offense and defense to take considerable steps forward from last year. If not for a difficult schedule, I’d consider going with 11 wins, but the Seahawks are simply facing too many good teams to predict that. Ten wins and a wild-card playoff berth feels right.