Mariners Breakdown: An updated look at their playoff hopes
Sep 5, 2024, 4:32 PM | Updated: 8:55 pm
Seattle Mariners center fielder Julio Rodríguez makes a catch against the A's on Thursday. (Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
(Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
The Seattle Mariners salvaged a four-game split against the Oakland Athletics with victories on Wednesday and Thursday, but the past week has been a missed opportunity to make up ground in the playoff race.
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Seattle went just 3-4 over their past two series against the Los Angeles Angels and the Athletics, who hold two of the five worst records in the majors. To make matters worse, all four of those losses came by a single run – including three on walkoffs.
One sliver of good news: The Cincinnati Reds completed a three-game sweep of Houston on Thursday, which allowed the Mariners (71-70) to inch back to within 4.5 games of the first-place Astros (75-65) in the American League West race. Seattle got some help from a familiar face, as former Mariners first baseman Ty France went 9 for 11 in the series for Cincinnati, including the deciding home run in the Reds’ 1-0 win on Thursday.
The Mariners are also still alive on the fringes of the AL wild-card race. They sit five games behind the Kansas City Royals for the AL’s final wild-card spot and 5.5 games behind the Minnesota Twins for the second wild-card spot. Seattle is one-half game ahead of the Boston Red Sox and Detroit Tigers, and 1.5 games ahead of the Tampa Bay Rays.
The Mariners currently have a 9.4% chance of reaching the playoffs, according to Fangraphs. Their odds of winning the AL West are at 5.5% and their chances of earning a wild-card spot are at 3.8%.
Schedule watch
The Mariners’ opponents over their final 21 games have a combined win percentage of .506, which ranks as the fourth-toughest remaining schedule in the AL, according to Tankathon. Kansas City has the AL’s third-toughest remaining schedule at .509, Minnesota has the sixth-toughest at .498 and Houston has the seventh-toughest at .492.
Seattle closes its 10-game road trip this weekend with a three-game series against the St. Louis Cardinals (71-69), while Houston faces the Arizona Diamondbacks (79-62).
After that, the Astros have a chance to pull away over the next two weeks, with a stretch that features 10 of 13 games against either the Athletics or Angels. During that stretch, the Mariners have two games against the San Diego Padres (80-61), three games against the New York Yankees (80-60) and seven games against the Texas Rangers (67-73).
The key for Seattle will be staying within striking distance through that span. If the Mariners can do that, then they have a chance to take matters into their own hands when the Astros come to town for a three-game series on Sept. 23-25. The M’s then have the more favorable series to close the season, as they face the A’s on Sept. 27-29, while Houston faces the AL Central-leading Cleveland Guardians (80-60).
More on the Seattle Mariners
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• The numbers behind the Mariners’ two-month slide
• Bowden: Why Mariners’ manager switch needed to be made
• Why Edgar has high hopes for Julio in final month
• How Edgar thinks he can help Seattle Mariners in new era of hitting
