Mariners Breakdown: Where Seattle stands in postseason push
Sep 1, 2024, 5:28 PM
George Kirby of the Seattle Mariners reacts as he leaves the game on Aug. 30, 2024. (Harry How/Getty Images)
(Harry How/Getty Images)
The Seattle Mariners had a chance to make a move with a favorable schedule, but they failed to capitalize and saw their slim playoff hopes dwindle.
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The Mariners came away with a 3-3 record this past week after taking two of three games against the Tampa Bay Rays and dropping two of three against the Los Angeles Angels, who remain a major thorn in Seattle’s side despite being one of baseball’s worst teams. The M’s have lost six one-run games against the Angels this season, eight of their past nine innings and finished the season series with a losing 5-8 record. Los Angeles is the only American League West team with a winning record against them.
Additionally, all three of the week’s losses came by one run, making a tough week all the more painful.
To make matters worst, the AL West-leading Houston Astros wrapped up a four-game sweep of the Kansas City Royals on Sunday to secure a 5-2 week. After entering the week 4 1/2 games behind Houston, the M’s now trail by six with 26 remaining.
The one solace Seattle could take in Houston’s sweep was that it kept Kansas City from pulling away further in the wild card race. The Mariners entered the week trailing both Kansas City and Minnesota by 6 1/2 games for the final two wild card spots and now sit five games behind both. Boston is ahead of Seattle at 4 1/2 games back, while Detroit is also five games behind.
Seattle holds an 11.8% chance of reaching the playoffs with a 6.9% chance coming through the wild card, per FanGraphs.
The numbers indicate the Mariners’ greatest hope at this point is now the wild card, but winning the division remains a clearer path. They have lost the tiebreaker to each team mentioned above in the wild card hunt, so you can essentially add one game to the deficit since they will need to finish in front of those teams to reach the postseason.
On the other hand, Seattle needs to win just one of three games remaining against the Astros to claim the season series, but it’s looking more and more like a sweep of Houston at Minute Maid Park in the penultimate series of the campaign will be necessary to win the West. If the Mariners could somehow pull even in the division by the end of that series, they would be in a favorable spot with three games against Oakland to close the season while Houston faces AL Central-leading Cleveland.
Schedule watch
After completing series against the Rays and Angels this week, Seattle has the third-toughest remaining schedule among the teams it’s competing with for playoff spots, per Tankathon.
The .494 combined winning percentage of the M’s remaining opponents ranks 16th overall in the league. Kansas City’s seventh-ranked schedule at .518 is the toughest. Detroit has the easiest schedule remaining with a .471 opponents’ winning percentage, which ranks 29th in the league. Meanwhile, Minnesota is 14th at .496, Boston is 18th at .493 and Houston is 23rd at .488.
The Mariners begin a four-game series against Oakland on Monday – their final series ever at the Oakland Coliseum – before heading to St. Louis for three games starting Friday during a make-or-break week.
On Monday, Houston opens a three-game set at Cincinnati, Kansas City starts three games at home against Cleveland, Minnesota begins four games at Tampa Bay, Boston opens three games at the New York Mets and Detroit starts three games at San Diego.
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