Rost: What if we’re wrong about Seahawks QB Geno Smith?

Aug 30, 2024, 12:35 PM

Seattle Sports

What if we’re wrong about Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith?

Seattle Seahawks Season Preview: A close look at the quarterbacks

That question applies to everyone. If your starting point as a Geno-Smith-observer is that you fundamentally believe he’s a .500 quarterback who’s a game manager at best, what if you’re wrong? What if Smith takes off in 2024 and surprises you? You’ll still lament that he’s an older passer with questions about longevity, but you’d ultimately have underestimated his ceiling.

If you’re firmly in the camp that Smith is held back by playcalling or a poor defense or a banged-up offensive line, what say you if he doesn’t take the step forward you’re sure a new offense will provide him? Will excuses keep mounting?

I don’t know that I have a full grasp of Smith’s ceiling – other than I tend to believe it’s higher than national critics do – but I do know two things: First, that we all tend to lean a little too heavily into our own perception of quarterbacks without regularly challenging them, and second, that Smith will absolutely, positively have a chance to challenge that himself this year.

How often do we really edit player narratives?

Quite honestly this applies to any athlete, but quarterback is the most important and most visible position, and the more we talk about a player the more we start to piece together the story of who we think he is.

That’s not to say we don’t have a general understanding of talent. Both you and I know that Patrick Mahomes is very, very good. That’s not just because he’s thrown for 50 touchdowns in a season or because he already has three Super Bowl rings before age 30. It’s because we’ve watched him turn an NFL field into a playground with impossible completions, no-look passes, and frustrating evasiveness.

More interesting in this case are the quarterbacks who stand a chance to challenge an existing perception, for better or worse. I’ve always loved exploring the question of what makes a Super Bowl team, and on a very related note, what type of quarterback can lead a team to a Super Bowl. With six of the last eight championships being won by either Tom Brady or Mahomes, I’m sure fans of every other franchise just want to believe that you can win it all without the absolute best quarterback ever under center.

Let’s talk about perception. Age has been a knock against a few starters, but the Rams acquired Matthew Stafford in his age 33 season and won a Super Bowl. The Seahawks brought in a 32-year-old failed Jets product and former backup to compete for a starting job and saw him win Comeback Player of the Year. Stafford won it all while Smith is still looking for a playoff victory as a Seahawk, but the point is that both passers found new heights in a fresh stint with a new team.

Tua Tagovailoa, benched in Miami in 2020, led the league in passing yards last season. Brock Purdy, 2022’s Mr. Irrelevant (the last player picked in the draft), is the most successful quarterback from his class and led all quarterbacks in passer rating in 2023. Jared Goff was once considered the weak link in Los Angeles but was at the head of one of last season’s more prolific offenses in Detroit. Get the right system, the right weapons, the right coach, some confidence and luck, and quarterbacks you’d previously written off can surprise you. And what’s more fun than a surprise season?

What can Geno Smith prove in 2024?

Smith has been one of the league’s most accurate passers over the last two seasons, but his numbers aren’t otherwise eye popping. He was 15th in yards and 17th in quarterback rating and touchdowns.

One version of Smith’s story is just that: He’s average.

Another is that a banged up offensive line, inconsistent run game, and poor defensive play have more to do with that .500 record. Perhaps Smith is the victim of an old narrative – as many other players are – that masks impressive play with the idea that any stellar performance is simply fleeting.

But a few tweaks with this offense could give Smith a chance to push that ceiling higher. One small example? More play-action in the red zone, according to former NFL wide receiver Michael Bumpus.

“Geno Smith and the offense only had four play-action touchdowns,” Bumpus said during Thursday’s Bump and Stacy. “I believe they ran the ball three or four times more than they passed the ball once they got in the red zone.

“Mahomes has 22 passing touchdowns inside the 10. Dak Prescott 18 passing touchdowns inside the 10. Jordan Love had 18, Matthew Stafford had 15, Tua Tagovailoa had 14. The only team here that was top in the league when it came to rushing was Miami. I think the Hawks will be able to be a legit threat running inside the 10 and a legit passing team … that’s why I’m excited for this year. I think that Grubb is not going to be scared to let that thing go.”

The best way to challenge a narrative is to take advantage of new opportunities, to let many small wins and improvements write a new story. Whether or not Smith does it will be entirely up to him; if he can, it’s the Seahawks and their fans who are the real winners.

Hear the full conversation in the video at the top of this story or the audio player above. Tune in to Bump and Stacy weekdays from 10 a.m.-2 p.m. or find the podcast on the Seattle Sports app.