Salk: Should Julio Rodríguez take a page out of Randy Arozarena’s book?

Julio Rodríguez is the most talented position player on the Seattle Mariners’ roster. And while talent usually rises to the top, it hasn’t been that kind of season for the Mariner star.

No one knows exactly why. Maybe it was the pressure, but the hope was that with the All-Star Game hosting duties of 2023 behind him, that would dissipate. Maybe there was a mechanical issue with his swing. But the hope was a week with his personal hitting coach would fix that. Maybe it’s his physical growth (he is considerably taller than when he broke into the league and might still be growing). If that’s the problem, it’ll probably take some time for him to grow into his new body.

I am not going to pretend that I know the problem, but watching Randy Arozarena for the past few weeks after the Mariners’ trade for him has given me a hypothesis. What if Julio is simply swinging too hard and (more importantly) too often?

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Let me start by establishing that I have really, really enjoyed watching Arozarena since he arrived in Seattle. He plays the game hard, with a purpose, and a flair that we don’t often see in a sport too often marked by a commitment to blending into the crowd. He craves the big moment and he has made a significant difference in this lineup.

He has produced to the tune of a .286 batting average, .429 on-base percentage, .429 slugging percentage and .858 OPS in 16 games with Seattle. The batting average may come down, but the on-base percentage has been driven by 11 walks. More interestingly, the slugging percentage is high despite one home run. That happens when you hit five doubles in just 70 plate appearances.

Watching him made me wonder: What if Julio took Randy’s approach at the plate?

First and foremost, Randy swings at fewer pitches than Julio, by a lot. Arozarena is swinging 42% of the time versus Julio’s staggering 55%. The league average is 47%. Given the league’s fear of Julio’s power (and knowledge of his free-swinging tendencies), just taking more pitches should put him in some more advantageous counts and give him the chance to walk more and hit for more power.

But what’s surprised me about Julio’s issues this season is that they don’t seem to be connected to the player he was trending to be in the minor leagues. Julio was a force at every level, but it wasn’t his home runs that set him apart. Sure, he always had the ability to hit the ball out of the park. But he walked in 10% of his minor league at-bats versus 6% as a major leaguer. Obviously the pitching plays a role in that change, but his walk rate has been nearly cut in half. It’s a lot harder to walk when you swing 55% of the time!

While the walks have decreased, so have the doubles. He doubled in 6% of his minor league plate appearances and that number has shrunk to 4%. While the percentages don’t seem huge, they represent just 14 more doubles in nearly twice the number of plate appearances.

The doubles matter. Remember how hot Julio was last August? He hit seven home runs that month en route to a (ridiculous) .724 slugging percentage. He actually hit eight home runs the following month but saw his slugging dip to (a still absurd) .496. The difference: four more doubles and 18 more hits over the course of the month.

I know the sample sizes are small and I am clearly extrapolating a lot from just a little information. But it sure seems to me that Julio is at his best when he swings less and doesn’t sell out for more power.

The best thing about this theory is that it is just a mindset/approach change. It doesn’t require anything mechanical. It doesn’t require him to be “better” at anything. And it’s possible he could learn something from his new teammate in Arozarena.

To be clear, they are different players and should attack the game in a way that best suits their strengths. Julio is nearly five inches taller than Randy, and that will almost definitely play a role in their styles. But I can’t help but wonder what Randy’s approach would look like with Julio’s talent.

I have no doubt that Julio is a hard worker. No doubt that he is as committed and focused as any player in the league. This hypothesis should not read as a criticism as much as a genuine attempt to figure out why he hasn’t been the same player this season, nor the one he was projecting to be on his way up to the big leagues. The minor league version of Julio Rodríguez was exceptional in part because of his ability to fill up a box score. When he is at his best, he should be taking walks, hitting singles, pounding doubles into the gaps and then crushing home runs when the opportunity arises.

Maybe all it takes is a shift in his approach. And maybe that will come just by being around someone like Arozarena.

More on the Seattle Mariners

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• What to make of Julio Rodríguez’s return to Mariners’ lineup
• Drayer: How Víctor Robles, Seattle Mariners landed on a win-win extension

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