Why seeding for expanded College Football Playoff isn’t simple

The College Football Playoff expands from four to 12 teams this season, a massive change that will profoundly impact the sport and how success is defined.

The system is also kind of quirky.

Big Ten Check-In: Oregon out to challenge for title in debut season

The second-best team in the country by the selection committee’s rankings could conceivably be the fifth seed. The 12th-ranked team could get left out for a team that’s not even in the CFP’s top 25.

This is how the 12-team CFP will work and the guidelines that will almost certainly make fans frustrated.

College Football Playoff format

• The teams will still be selected by a panel of 13 people (mostly former coaches and players and current athletic directors). As in past seasons, the weekly top 25 will start in late October or early November and selection Sunday will be Dec. 8, the day after conference championship games.

• The field will be comprised of the five highest-ranked conference champions, regardless of league, and seven at-large selections. There is no limit to the number of at-large bids a conference can receive.

• Guaranteeing five conference champions in the field means at least one team from a Group of Five league gets in. Recent history and realignment suggest that particular team is likely to fall outside the top 12 in the committee’s final rankings. For example, last year Liberty was ranked No. 23 in the committee’s final rankings, which gave the Flames a spot in the Fiesta Bowl, where they were crushed by Oregon.

In a 12-team playoff with this season’s conference alignment, Liberty would have been the 12th seed, bumping 12th-ranked Oklahoma.

If you root for a Power Four conference school, No. 11 is the more realistic cutoff to get in the CFP.

Top four

• The top four seeds and a first-round bye are only available to conference champions, no matter where they are ranked. For example, in 2022 Clemson and Utah would have earned byes as league champions even though they were ranked seventh and eighth, respectively, in the committee’s final rankings.

• Yes, that means the teams ranked third (TCU) and fourth (Ohio State) in 2022 would have been the fifth and sixth seeds. In the new superconference era, that guideline figures to produce some odd-looking brackets.

• As an independent, Notre Dame cannot receive a first-round bye.

Sites

• Seeds five through eight will host seeds nine through 12 in first-round games on campus. Those games will be played on Dec. 20 (one game) and Dec. 21 (three).

• The quarterfinals will be played in traditional marquee bowls on Dec. 31 (Fiesta Bowl) and Jan. 1 (Peach, Rose, Sugar). Where the top four seeds play will be aligned as closely as possible with current and traditional bowl tie-ins. For example, the Big Ten champion would play in the Rose Bowl and the SEC champion likely plays in the Sugar Bowl.

• The semifinals will also be played in bowl games. This year, that’s Jan. 9 at the Orange Bowl and Jan. 10 at the Cotton Bowl.

• The championship game, like the Super Bowl, moves around the country. This season is will be played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on Jan. 20, by far the latest a college football season as ended.

Seattle Sports’ Michael Bumpus to call CFB games on The CW