How another door to playoffs is opening for the Mariners

Aug 13, 2024, 12:27 PM

Seattle Mariners Dylan Moore and Mitch Garver...

Dylan Moore (left) of the Seattle Mariners and Mitch Garver celebrate after scoring during a 2024 game. (Stephen Brashear/Getty Images)

(Stephen Brashear/Getty Images)

BY ZAC HERETH

Seattle Sports

The focus for the Seattle Mariners this season has been to reach the playoffs by winning the American League West.

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After breaking their 21-year playoff drought in 2022, a first AL West crown in 23 seasons would be the next step for a team ultimately hoping to break through for its first World Series appearance and title. It’s shaping up to be a tight race down the stretch for supremacy in the division, with the Houston Astros entering Tuesday one-half game in front of the Mariners.

Seattle did plenty to help its cause over the weekend, sweeping the New York Mets in dominant fashion while allowing only one run over three games. The Mariners have won four straight as a result, but it hasn’t been quite enough to keep prace with the Astros, who have won six straight.

However, an AL West title isn’t the only path to the playoffs that remains within reach for Seattle, which now sits just two games behind the Kansas City Royals for the final AL wild card berth.

“I think this has gone under the radar for a lot of people,” ESPN MLB insider Jeff Passan told Seattle Sports’ Brock and Salk. “… It’s not as if it’s West or bust anymore. They have thrust themselves, with these four consecutive wins, back into the wild card mix.”

The Mariners dropped to 4 1/2 games behind the Royals after the second loss in their series against the Detroit Tigers last week, but have inched closer after winning the final game of the series against the Tigers and then sweeping the Mets, with the Royals losing three of their past four at the same time. The Red Sox also entered Tuesday two games behind the Royals after being swept by Houston.

“They are dueling it out right now, and it’s to the point where if the Royals don’t get their act together – and the Red Sox are sort of looming there – we’ve got a chance for a real dogfight down the stretch here when it comes to the wild card,” Passan said. “The Mariners don’t need to put all their eggs in the in the AL West basket.”

Head-to-head tiebreakers

The close races for the AL West title and wild card spots could come down to head-to-head tiebreakers. Here’s a look at how the Mariners have fared against teams currently in those chases.

• Astros: The Mariners lead the season series with Houston 6-4 with three games remaining (Sept. 23-25 at Houston). Seattle needs to win only one of three games in its penultimate series of the season to claim the tiebreaker.

• Yankees: The Mariners and Yankees split a four-game set in New York in May. The head-to-head tiebreaker will come down to the winner of a three-game series in Seattle Aug. 17-19. New York holds the top wild card spot and is 6 1/2 games in front of Seattle. The Yankees also trail the Orioles by just one-half game for first place in the AL East.

• Twins: The Mariners dropped five of seven games against the Twins and lost the season series. Minnesota holds the second wild card berth and is 3 1/2 games in front of Seattle. The Twins are also just 3 1/2 games behind Cleveland for first in the AL Central.

• Royals: The Mariners and Royals split their six-game season series.

• Red Sox: The Mariners dropped four of seven games and lost the season series.

Strength of schedule

Here’s a breakdown of the remaining strength of schedule for the Mariners and the teams listed above, with remaining opponents’ combined winning percentage in parenthesis, per Tankathon:

• Mariners: 23rd toughest schedule (.490)

• Astros: 15th (.502)

• Yankees: 26th (.483)

• Twins: 9th (.507)

• Royals: 2nd (.526)

• Red Sox: 12th (.505)

ESPN MLB insider Jeff Passan joins Brock and Salk every Tuesday for the national perspective on the Seattle Mariners. Listen to the full conversation at this link or in the audio player near the top of this story.