Salk: The clear trade route for Mariners to capitalize on this year
May 15, 2024, 12:12 AM | Updated: 10:48 am
(David Berding/Getty Images)
As the Seattle Mariners pass the quarter point of the season, we are starting to learn who they are. They have pretty clearly defined themselves as a team that leads with its starting pitching, doesn’t surrender a ton of late leads, still struggles to score consistently, strikes out too often, and isn’t as athletic or as powerful as they’d like to be.
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While we don’t yet know which players will pull themselves out of their offensive holes, we are starting to get a clear idea of which positions the Mariners could look to upgrade. First base, corner outfield and even an infield spot all seem in play, plus the usual possibility of adding pitching because you can never have enough.
Those spots will come further into focus in the next few weeks as shortstop J.P. Crawford and outfielder Dominic Canzone return, giving Seattle a lot more flexibility to ride the hot hands in the corner outfield spots (Mitch Haniger, Dylan Moore, Luke Raley, Canzone and even Josh Rojas), first base (Ty France and Raley), DH (Haniger and Mitch Garver), and second/third base (Moore, Rojas, Luis Urías and Jorge Polanco). That is a lot of positional flexibility, and it should clarify their needs.
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There will be bats available. White Sox center fielder Luis Robert, Mets first baseman Pete Alonso, and A’s outfielder/DH Brent Rooker are some of the initial names we’ve heard. You might eventually add star Blue Jays like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, plus Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman from Houston, and any National or Marlin that might interest you. That’s just looking at teams that are likely to sell due to their records and doesn’t include any others that will be forced to cut payroll as the effects of the regional sports network failures continue to pile up.
I don’t know which direction the Mariners will go yet, but I would expect they will follow a similar plan to their past. When the 2022 team put themselves in position to add, they went all in and acquired Luis Castillo for a cache of prized prospects. They valued his upside and controllability, then signed him to a long-term contract. A betting man would put some money on them trying to go the same route this time.
That would take Alonso and Bregman out of the mix as both would be pure rentals before hitting free agency this winter. Robert might be the best combination of ability and controllability (he is under contract through 2027), but some of his value is tied to his defense in center, something that the Mariners obviously wouldn’t need. He also wouldn’t exactly help their strikeout problem, as he is quite prone to the K. So while there are options, there isn’t one that is immediately obvious as the clear choice, at least not yet.
And what will it take to get one of these hitters? Former major league executive Jim Bowden said on the station that the front office needs to get used to the idea of being uncomfortable and dealing one of its young starters (likely Emerson Hancock, who is currently stashed in Triple-A Tacoma). To that, I say – strongly and loudly – “no!”
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The Mariners should not be looking to deal any major league-caliber starting pitching. At least not unless they are planning to get back another equivalent (or upgraded) starter as well. Pitching is too important, and it is too fragile to bank on just five guys taking it the rest of the way. Bryan Woo has already shown some of that risk, but we know any pitcher can go down at any time in the modern game.
Furthermore, pitching is the lifeblood of this team’s success. If they were to trade one and lose another starter, they would not be the same team during 20% of their games. And adding one bat (even an impact one) would not change the offensive identity of the team enough to give them a real chance to win during those starts.
Fortunately, the Mariners shouldn’t have to go that route. While they may have taken a dive in the prospect rankings the last few years, that is because they graduated so many and traded a few more, leaving the strength of the farm system in the low minors. But make no mistake, what is there is quite strong. Cole Young, Felnin Celesten, Colt Emerson, Tai Peete, Jonny Farmelo, Lazaro Montes and Harry Ford, among others, are very well thought of and could headline a deal for a big time return.
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We’ve seen the Mariners succeed by dealing prospects at the deadline (Castillo), and we’ve seen them tread water by trading major leaguers for other major leaguers (Kendall Graveman for Abraham Toro, Paul Sewald for Canzone/Rojas). If they put themselves into a position to go for it, I hope they eschew the idea of dealing pitching and concentrate on getting the bat(s) they need for the prospects they are developing. It could be the difference in how this season ends.
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