Sports betting markets forced to adjust to higher scoring

Jan 5, 2023, 11:44 PM | Updated: Jan 6, 2023, 1:46 pm
Colorado Avalanche defenseman Cale Makar winds up for a shot during the third period of the team's ...

Colorado Avalanche defenseman Cale Makar winds up for a shot during the third period of the team's NHL hockey game against the Los Angeles Kings on Thursday, Dec. 29, 2022, in Denver. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

(AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

              Georgia quarterback Stetson Bennett (13) runs toward the end zone for a touchdown against Ohio State during the first half of the Peach Bowl NCAA college football semifinal playoff game, Saturday, Dec. 31, 2022, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)
              Colorado Avalanche defenseman Cale Makar winds up for a shot during the third period of the team's NHL hockey game against the Los Angeles Kings on Thursday, Dec. 29, 2022, in Denver. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)
              Cleveland Cavaliers guard Donovan Mitchell (45) shoots against Chicago Bulls guard Zach LaVine (8) during the second half of an NBA basketball game, Monday, Jan. 2, 2023, in Cleveland. (AP Photo/Ron Schwane)
              Cleveland Cavaliers guard Donovan Mitchell (45) celebrates with center Jarrett Allen (31) after an overtime win over the Chicago Bulls in an NBA basketball game, Monday, Jan. 2, 2023, in Cleveland. (AP Photo/Ron Schwane)
              TCU running back Emari Demercado (3) breaks free from Michigan linebacker Junior Colson (25) during the second half of the Fiesta Bowl NCAA college football semifinal playoff game, Saturday, Dec. 31, 2022, in Glendale, Ariz. (AP Photo/Rick Scuteri)

LAS VEGAS (AP) — The recent rise in NBA and NHL scoring has caused the betting markets to respond in kind, posting totals that would have been unimaginable not long ago.

NBA teams were averaging 113.8 points a game through Thursday. That is the highest figure since the 1969-70 season when the average was 116.7, but does follow a greater trend.

Scoring averages have surpassed 110 points for five straight seasons after not hitting that mark since 1985-86 when the Boston Celtics, Los Angeles Lakers and Houston Rockets were the dominant teams led by future Hall of Famers.

According to SportRadar, NBA games this season have gone over the Las Vegas betting totals 51.5% of the time, the second-highest rate since the website began tracking such trends in the 2012-13 season.

The totals are the number of expected combined points in a game, and bets are placed on whether that actual number will be lower or higher. Sportsbooks try to even out the betting as much as possible because the closer to 50% wagering on each side, the increased chances of ensuring a profit. Each bet carries a charge or what is commonly referred to as the vig.

Chris Andrews, sportsbook director of the South Point in Las Vegas, said the lowest total for Wednesday’s NBA games was 229. He said that wouldn’t have been so unusual in the mid-80s, but is more eye opening now.

“The game’s in a constant flux, and every game’s in a constant flux,” Andrews said. “That’s part of our challenge. It’s been that way forever for bookmakers and for bettors, too.”

As team scoring averages have risen, so have individual ones. Each night, it seems, someone is scoring 50-plus points.

Just last Monday, Golden State’s Klay Thompson scored 54 points only to be overshadowed by the 71 that Cleveland’s Donovan Mitchell put up. Dallas’ Luka Doncic scored 60 points on Dec. 27, one of three games in a five-game stretch where he had 50 or more points.

There were 14 50-point games through Thursday and 90 40-point performances.

The breakout of player scoring has affected proposition bets in which individual matchups often are wagered. Andrews said those wagers are adjusted similarly to team ones.

A similar upswing is taking place in the NHL.

Through Thursday, teams were averaging 3.17 goals a game, the highest number since the 1993-94 season when the figure was 3.24. It’s not much different from last season when the average was 3.14, and this is the fourth time in five years the figure is north of 3.0.

But until this current stretch, the average was less than 3.0 for 12 straight seasons.

“Every game’s a 6 or higher,” Andrews said of Wednesday’s action. “Last year or so, that would be pretty rare to have every game on the board 6 or higher. We occasionally had some 4 1/2s at times. But I can go back to the ’80s when we had 8 to 9s when (Wayne) Gretzky was playing.”

Minnesota-based Alex B. Smith, one of the nation’s top NHL handicapping experts, said the number of high-skilled players is the primary reason more pucks are going into the net. He cited the depth scoring for the Boston Bruins and Edmonton Oilers as primary examples.

“You have more offensive players in those third and fourth lines,” Smith said of the league in general. “More offensive defensemen, guys like (Colorado’s) Cale Makar, for example. The goaltenders, as great as they are, they’ve made their pads smaller.

“They’re calling more cross checks. They’re calling more goalie interference. You’ve got a lot of teams where they run plays where they’re screening the goaltenders. All those things are factors in the higher scoring.”

Now that teams are back into a more regular rhythm after the Christmas break, he noted scoring already has picked back up after a short holiday lull.

“This is the new norm for sure,” Smith said. “Sixes and 6 1/2s are going to be the totals for quite some time, and you might even start seeing more 7s because it seems like for the most part defenses tend to wear down over time.”

The high-scoring College Football Playoff semifinals fall in line with the recent scoring trend. No. 1 Georgia beat No. 4 Ohio State 42-41 in one semifinal, and No. 3 TCU won the other one 51-45 over No. 2 Michigan.

The betting total for Monday’s national title game is 62 1/2, according to FanDuel Sportsbook. That’s also the consensus number at Las Vegas sportsbooks, according to Vegas Insider.

Though the overall scoring trend in college football this season wasn’t higher than in recent years, it does follow the general pattern of where offenses have gone in the sport.

“I remember when I first started (in 1979), most college football totals would probably be in the 40s — 45, 47 maybe,” Andrews said. “Now, you almost never see it like that. Most totals are at least in the 50s.”

The challenge for sportsbook directors and bettors is identifying what is a small sample size compared to a general trend. What’s happening in the NBA and NHL appears to fall more in the latter category.

The Gold Sheet’s Bruce Marshall said in a text message that gauging how the increased scoring is making a difference in betting patterns, however, is difficult to measure.

“I do not think it has increased betting volume overall,” Marshall said.


AP sports: and

Copyright © The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.


FILE - A woman passes by the Olympic rings at the City Hall in Paris, on  July 25, 2022. Latvia is ...
Associated Press

Ukraine steps up efforts to exclude Russia from Olympics

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Ukraine stepped up efforts Friday to lobby international sports leaders against Russian participation in next year’s Paris Olympics as indications mount that the games could see the biggest boycott since the Cold War. A meeting of the Ukrainian Olympic Committee did not commit to a boycott but approved plans to consult […]
1 day ago
Iowa guard Caitlin Clark (22) drives up court past Maryland guard Bri McDaniel (24) during the seco...
Associated Press

Caitlin Clark scores 42, No. 6 Iowa tops No. 8 Maryland

IOWA CITY, Iowa (AP) — Caitlin Clark scored 42 points and Monika Czinano had 28 as No. 6 Iowa defeated No. 8 Maryland 96-82 on Thursday night. Clark, who entered second in the nation in scoring at 27.1 points per game, was 13 of 19 from the field, including 6 for 11 on 3-pointers. She […]
1 day ago
Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, centre, attends a joint news conference with Latvian Prime Min...
Associated Press

Baltic leaders: Olympic boycott possible if Russians compete

COPENHAGEN, Denmark (AP) — The prime ministers of the three Baltic countries urged the International Olympic Committee to ban Russian athletes from next year’s Paris Games because of the war in Ukraine, saying Friday a boycott was a possibility. Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas said athletes from her country could be put in a situation […]
1 day ago
FILE - Greek actress Xanthi Georgiou, playing the role of High Priestess, lights the torch with the...
Associated Press

Olympic flame to take seaborne journey to 2024 Paris Games

MARSEILLE, France (AP) — The Olympic flame is going for a sail. Instead of arriving overland, the symbolic flame alighting the 2024 Paris Games will take to the seas from its birthplace in Greece, arriving aboard a three-masted tall ship in the French port of Marseille. Paris organizers announced the flame’s journey on Friday at […]
1 day ago
Philadelphia Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni looks on prior to the NFC Championship NFL football ga...
Associated Press

4th down coaching decisions could prove key in Super Bowl

If the Super Bowl comes down to a key fourth-down decision, that might bode well for the the Philadelphia Eagles. The analytically inclined Eagles have long been one of the NFL’s most aggressive organizations when it comes to the crucial fourth-down calls. Those decisions helped fuel the team’s first Super Bowl title five years ago […]
1 day ago
FILE -LeBron James speaks at the opening ceremony for the I Promise School in Akron, Ohio, Monday, ...
Associated Press

LeBron’s off-court legacy complements his basketball success

Mya Smiley is a student at the University of Akron thanks to an assist from LeBron James, and she is determined upon graduation to become a social worker that helps foster kids. Her education and career path would not have been possible, the sophomore says, were it not for a scholarship and counseling that she […]
1 day ago
Sports betting markets forced to adjust to higher scoring