Kentucky Derby pick: Taiba will rise above his inexperience

May 6, 2022, 12:27 PM | Updated: May 7, 2022, 12:29 am
Kentucky Derby entrant Taiba works out at Churchill Downs Wednesday, May 4, 2022, in Louisville, Ky...

Kentucky Derby entrant Taiba works out at Churchill Downs Wednesday, May 4, 2022, in Louisville, Ky. The 148th running of the Kentucky Derby is scheduled for Saturday, May 7. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

(AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

              Kentucky Derby entrant Epicenter works out at Churchill Downs on Friday, May 6, 2022, in Louisville, Ky. The race scheduled for Saturday, May 7. (AP Photo/Brynn Anderson)
              Kentucky Derby entrant Mo Donegal works out at Churchill Downs Thursday, May 5, 2022, in Louisville, Ky. The 148th running of the Kentucky Derby is scheduled for Saturday, May 7. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)
              Kentucky Derby entrant Taiba works out at Churchill Downs Wednesday, May 4, 2022, in Louisville, Ky. The 148th running of the Kentucky Derby is scheduled for Saturday, May 7. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

Ah, the traditions of Kentucky Derby day. Mint juleps. Ornate hats. The garland of roses that will be draped across the winner. Those have all been part of the show at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May for decades.

A new tradition of sorts has popped up: Peculiarity.

The last three Derbies have been anything but normal. Maximum Security crossed the line first only to get disqualified for interference in 2019. The first Saturday in May became the first Saturday in September in 2020, thanks to the pandemic. And 2021 saw Medina Spirit winning the race, trainer Bob Baffert subsequently getting embroiled in yet another drug-testing scandal, the horse dying in December following a workout and then getting stripped of the Derby win early this year.

Expect more unexpected on Saturday at Churchill Downs when the Triple Crown season gets underway. And here’s why.

— Rule No. 1: A horse that starts on the rail can’t win the Derby.

There’s something to this. No horse has drawn the No. 1 post and prevailed since Ferdinand in 1986. (No horse has drawn 1, 2 or 3 and won since Real Quiet in 1998, either.) It’s unsettling for horses to have such much traffic, with more than a dozen other massive animals trying to beat them to the first turn. The inside-post-drawing horses often have nowhere to run at that point; the rail is to their left, the faster horses got ahead of them, those who tried and failed to get ahead are to their right.

But Mo Donegal won the Wood Memorial from the rail, letting the field go to the front early, then finding a better gear than everyone else did down the stretch. He should be flying at the end.

— Rule No. 2: Steve Asmussen can’t win the Derby.

The numbers don’t lie: Asmussen has sent 23 horses into the Derby and never won the thing. No trainer has had more Derby starters without a victory.

But there’s a lot to like about Epicenter, even though he starts from the No. 3 post (see Rule No. 1). He broke his maiden at Churchill Downs, the start of four wins in his last five outings, and he’d be 5 for 5 if the Lecomte Stakes in January had been about 5 feet shorter.

— Rule No. 3: No horse with just two career starts can win the Derby.

Unless you are at least 139 years old — we’re guessing that you aren’t — you’ve never seen a horse with just two career starts come to the Kentucky Derby and win. The 1883 Derby was captured by a horse named Leonatus, who, according to legend, took the term “run for the roses” a bit too literally since he ate a bunch of roses after the race.

This brings us to Taiba, who is 2 for 2 in his brief career and is coming off a win in the Santa Anita Derby. Mike Smith in the saddle should merit attention. So should the fact that, until a few weeks ago, Taiba was trained by Baffert. Derby-bound horses typically don’t get trained by Baffert unless there’s some serious reason to believe.

— Rule No. 4: This year, Baffert can’t win the Derby.

Baffert was banned from this Derby (and the 2023 one, too) because of the drug-related issues with Medina Spirit. He fought it in court, to no avail.

This is where Tim Yakteen enters the story. Yakteen is a former assistant to Baffert, and he’s the one who took over the conditioning for Taiba and Messier — two horses with serious chances to win the Derby — when Baffert had to step aside.

So, no, Baffert can’t win. But Yakteen very well might.

— Rule No. 5: Past Derby performances by jockeys don’t matter.

Bluntly, this is hogwash. Everybody studies what all the horses have done in their careers. And trainers get tons of attention as well for their past success or lack of success. Jockeys, for whatever reason, aren’t always part of that formula.

Flavien Prat will be aboard Zandon on Saturday. Prat has been in the Derby four previous times — and been in the money on three of those occasions, including the (still-debated) win aboard Country House in 2019.

Zandon could be way, way, way back early in this race. Not ideal. But if anyone can figure it out, Prat can.

— Rule No. 6: This year, ignore the rules.

The depth of contenders this year might be as good as any in recent memory. The favorite will probably end up being Taiba or Epicenter, and the odds by post time might be 4-1 or so at worst.

Payouts will be lovely.

Derby wire-to-wire winners are rare; in the last 20 years, only Authentic (2020) pulled that off. Most of the winners get relatively close to the front early, hang out, then hit the gas pedal at the right time.

Messier and Mo Donegal will have to dig very deep to pull it off. Epicenter, if all goes right, will be flying. Zandon will make a big run late.

But the pick is Taiba.

The inexperience is a factor, yes, but the talent is unmistakable. Smith is a legend. And Yakteen will reap the benefit of Baffert not being around.

Taiba, over Epicenter and Zandon.


More AP sports: and

Copyright © The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.


Associated Press

Ex-Packer Guion gets 1 year for domestic violence assault

GREEN BAY, Wis. (AP) — Former Green Bay Packers defensive tackle Letroy Guion was sentenced to one year in jail after pleading no contest in a domestic violence assault at his home last fall. Brown County Circuit Court Judge Thomas Walsh also ordered Guion on Tuesday to serve three years’ probation and complete a domestic […]
26 days ago
Joe Jarzynka...
Associated Press

Durant eager for Suns debut vs. Hornets after knee injury

CHARLOTTE, N.C. (AP) — Kevin Durant has been through quite a bit during his 15-year NBA career — but joining a new team midway through the season is a new one for the 13-time All-Star. The 34-year-old Durant doesn’t seem all that worried. Durant makes his highly anticipated Phoenix Suns debut on Wednesday night against […]
26 days ago
FILE - Miami Dolphins head coach Brian Flores stands on the sideline during the second half of an N...
Associated Press

Judge: NFL coach can press discrimination claims in court

NEW YORK (AP) — NFL Coach Brian Flores can pursue some of his discrimination claims against the league and its teams in court rather than through arbitration, a judge ruled Wednesday. The written decision by Judge Valerie Caproni in Manhattan was issued months after lawyers for the league tried to get the lawsuit moved to […]
26 days ago
Chicago Blackhawks goaltender Alex Stalock cools off in the first period during an NHL hockey game ...
Associated Press

Kane trade reinforces hard reality of Blackhawks rebuild

CHICAGO (AP) — After days of speculation, the harsh reality of the Chicago Blackhawks’ situation was reinforced by one move in a flurry of transactions ahead of the NHL trade deadline. Showtime is over, at least in Chicago, and a seemingly bright future is, well, way off in the distance. The reverberations of Chicago’s decision […]
26 days ago
FILE -  Yves Jean-Bart, president of the Haitian Football Federation, wearing a protective face mas...
Associated Press

Disgraced ex-Haitian soccer president announces he’s back

PORT-AU-PRINCE, Haiti (AP) — Haiti’s former soccer federation president whose lifetime ban from sport over sexual abuse allegations was overturned last month announced Wednesday that he is reclaiming his position. Yves Jean-Bart’s defiant announcement could lead to a standoff with FIFA, which already has appointed an emergency management committee to lead the Haitian Football Association […]
26 days ago
FILE - Green Bay Packers' Aaron Rodgers walks off the field after an NFL football game against the ...
Associated Press

Rodgers says decision on future will come ‘soon enough’

GREEN BAY, Wis. (AP) — Aaron Rodgers says he will make a decision on his future “soon enough” as the four-time MVP quarterback ponders whether to play next season and if his future remains with the Green Bay Packers. Rodgers, 39, discussed his future while speaking on an episode of the “Aubrey Marcus Podcast” that […]
26 days ago
Kentucky Derby pick: Taiba will rise above his inexperience