Tannehill’s extension and the Seahawks’ negotiations with Wilson

We’ll see.

Those are the operative words when it comes to understanding both the size and ramifications of the contract extension between quarterback Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins.

How will it impact the Seahawks’ negotiations with Russell Wilson? We’ll see.

Will Tannehill even see most of the money in that deal? We’ll see.

Tannehill’s contract is shapeless enough that it’s possible to read all sorts of significance into a deal that in the end won’t have all that much in common with the extension Seattle hopes Wilson will sign. Not as much as some people think, anyway, because before the contract was even filed in the union’s database, there were plenty of people saying the terms showed that Tannehill received almost as much money added to his existing deal as the Seahawks initially offered Wilson.

That can’t be right, can it? After all, Tannehill hasn’t made a Pro Bowl or even reached the playoffs with Miami while Wilson is off to the winningest start of any quarterback in NFL history.

And while at first glance Tannehill’s new deal has some surface-level similarities with Wilson’s ongoing negotiations, there are some very specific differences, too. So let’s dive into the details of Tannehill’s six-year, $96 million deal as CBS Sports’ Jason La Canfora spelled them out to see what we can find out.

Q: So how much more money did Tannehill receive from Miami?

You’re asking about what is called the “new money” in a contract. It’s a phrase that agents and teams use to describe the money and years that are added to a deal. So here’s how Tannehill’s contract lays out: He was scheduled to earn $2.1 million in 2015, the fourth year of the rookie contract he signed as a first-round pick. The Dolphins already exercised a fifth-year option for $16.2 million. That means that Miami added four years and $77.7 million to Tannehill’s contract.

Q: That sounds pretty darn close to the four years, $80 million of new money Seattle was believed to offer initially to Wilson, right?

You’re right. It does sound very similar. Too similar given the success that Wilson has achieved in the exact same time frame. While Tannehill has passed for more yards in each of their three seasons in the league, the Dolphins have yet to finish better than 8-8 in any of those three seasons. Not only that, but Wilson’s running ability and his ability to avoid interceptions make him a perfect match for Seattle’s style. He is more valuable to Seattle’s offense than Tannehill is to Miami’s.

Q: Well, if Wilson is more valuable, why isn’t that value evident in a larger extension offer from the Seahawks?

A better question is whether Tannehill’s extension is as valuable as it appears to be on first blush, and the answer to that question: We’ll see. Tannehill’s contract is best understood in stages.

Stage 1 (2015-16): This is a two-year agreement in which Tannehill will make $25 million. Most of that is guaranteed at the moment of signing. Remember, these are the two years Tannehill was already under contract for, but now, instead of making roughly $18 million he’s going to get $25 million. That extra $7 million bought the team the option to evaluate Tannehill again after two seasons and walk away if it wants.

Stage 2 (2017): The Dolphins have the option to walk away from the deal after two years without future guarantees. Or they can exercise the option in March 2017 to guarantee Tannehill $14.5 million for the upcoming season, a rate that will be below your average starting quarterback in the NFL. If Tannehill makes it through three seasons of his current deal, he will have earned less than $40 million.

Stage 3 (2018-20): Here’s where most of the money in Tannehill’s deal is, and there’s no guarantee he will ever earn it. None. In fact, it’s likely the only way he earns it is if he continues to progress and develop as a quarterback. If he doesn’t, the Dolphins can eject in any season after 2016.

Q: Aren’t all NFL contracts backloaded, though?

To some extent. Most players see their salaries climb over the length of the deal, but the extensions that Seattle has signed its players to don’t tend to vary as much by year. Richard Sherman will make a salary of $10 million in 2015 when his extension truly kicks in. He’s scheduled to make $11 million in 2018, the last year of the deal. In fact, the extensions that Sherman, Earl Thomas, Kam Chancellor and K.J. Wright signed with Seattle all pay out more money in the first half of the deal than the second half. That stands in sharp contrast to Tannehill’s agreement, which has 60 percent of the money in the back half.

Q: So how does this deal affect Seattle’s negotiations with Wilson?

We’ll see. There’s going to be a lot to talk through, and all of this is made more complicated by the fact that this isn’t Andrew Luck we’re talking about, but Ryan Tannehill. The question isn’t whether Wilson is worth more, but how much more.

Because Seattle is offering to pay him more. In fact, under Seattle’s initial offer, Wilson very well could exceed Tannehill’s earnings by more than $10 million over the next three seasons not to mention the fact that Wilson would be getting back to the market for a new contract a year earlier than Tannehill (if he makes it that far).

But the bigger reality is that a negotiation that was already fairly complicated just got thornier with Tannehill’s deal.