O’Neil: How Seahawks play vs Vikings will show what they can do in playoffs
Dec 10, 2018, 11:31 AM
The Seahawks seem sure to make the playoffs, but what about when they get there? (AP)
(AP)
The Seahawks don’t need this victory to make the playoffs.
In fact, the postseason implications seem to lessen by the day. That’s because every team that’s in remote proximity to the Seattle Seahawks in the NFC wild-card chase is performing a synchronized death spiral straight down the toilet.
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That doesn’t make Seattle’s game against Minnesota on Monday night any less significant, though. While this game won’t determine whether the Seahawks will make the playoffs, it will give us the best idea of just how dangerous the Seahawks will be once they get there.
Yes. The Seahawks are going to make the playoffs, barring an epic collapse. And while I am legally obligated to hang that disclaimer of “barring an epic collapse,” the reality is that they’re pretty assured of a playoff berth. Seattle has a 94 percent chance of making the playoffs entering this game, according to the website fivethirtyeight.com, which is populated by actual data analysts. That likelihood only goes down to 84 percent should the Seahawks lose to the Vikings. So practically speaking, the Seahawks are making the playoffs.
How capable are they of winning once they get to the postseason, though? This game is going to give us a really good idea for two reasons.
First, Minnesota has something that Seattle hasn’t seen all that often this season: A formidable defense. The Seahawks have won three in a row entering this game, but those three games have been against three teams whose defenses are in the bottom half of the league in the most important defensive metrics.
The Vikings have a pretty good defense. In fact, it’s a defense that has been pretty darn great over the past three years. They allowed the fewest yards and the fewest points in the league last year.
The Seahawks have scored 27 or more points in each of the past four games. Their offense has become the most consistent component of the team. Can they do that against the Vikings?
The second thing that makes this game so intriguing is that while the Vikings are a fairly middle-of-the-road offense, they have one of the league’s more efficient passing games. And that – of course – lines up with the biggest concern on Seattle’s defense, which is its passing game. Nick Mullens threw for 415 yards against Seattle last week, and while that was in a game where Seattle held a sizable lead therefore forcing the 49ers to throw it, that’s still an awful lot of yards by an awfully anonymous quarterback.
Kirk Cousins is Minnesota’s $30 million man, and he’s completing more than 70 percent of his passes this season. That makes Seattle’s secondary a primary concern.
But this game is a referendum on the momentum that Seattle has conjured up over the past few weeks in which Seattle has gone from a team scuttling around .500 to perhaps the second-hottest NFC team. Now, that’s not exactly a high bar as other NFC playoff aspirants are taking turns shooting themselves in the foot, but only after first lighting themselves on fire.
The Carolina Panthers were once 6-2 and they’ve lost five in a row. The Packers have lost five of seven and fired their coach of 13 years. Washington lost its quarterback Alex Smith, has lost four straight and is now preparing to start its fourth different quarterback in four games. The Falcons are terrible. The Bucs aren’t much better.
The Minnesota Vikings look pretty good in contrast to that. They’ve been decidedly mediocre. They’re 6-5-1, having alternated wins and losses over the past six weeks, and if the Seahawks can’t beat this Vikings team at home, how are we going to expect them to win on the road once the playoffs start?
So while the Seahawks don’t need to win this game to make the playoffs, it’s hard to foresee them making any noise in the playoffs if they don’t.
This becomes a referendum on the trajectory of Seattle’s season, which is why I think they’ll win 33-24. Because while the rest of the conference’s playoff contenders are collapsing, the Seahawks are taking off.
