O’Neil: Falcons will show if the Seahawks are at the end of an era
Nov 20, 2017, 9:42 AM | Updated: 11:04 am
The Seahawks will try to hold down Julio Jones without Richard Sherman at cornerback. (AP)
(AP)
It was a playoff game against Atlanta five seasons ago that showed the Seahawks just how far it could go, Seattle proving it was a team to be reckoned with.
It’s a prime-time game against the Falcons on Monday night that will provide the best indication of how long the Seahawks can sustain their current run of success.
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As important as this game is for the NFC playoff picture – and it is tough to overstate the significance in that regard – it might be even more indicative about whether Seattle’s recipe for success can transcend the nucleus of players who led Seattle to back-to-back Super Bowl appearances.
The Seahawks’ defense is depleted. There’s no way around that. Cornerback Richard Sherman is lost for the season to a torn Achilles tendon, and strong safety Kam Chancellor out with a neck injury for Monday’s game at the very least – and he may be gone for the year, too.
“You can’t replace either one of those guys directly,” coach Pete Carroll said. “They’ve been here a long time, they’ve done so much. They stand for so much.”
The Seahawks have a starting-caliber safety in Bradley McDougald who is stepping in for Chancellor, and Jeremy Lane taking over Sherman’s spot at cornerback.
The Falcons’ offense remains potent and one of the very best in the league, quarterback Matt Ryan having been named the league’s MVP a year ago and Julio Jones among one of the biggest and best receivers in the game.
“It’s a fantastic group we’re going against,” Carroll said. “A great quarterback and great receivers. As good as you can get. So we’ll see how this test challenges our guys.”
Earl Thomas is back after missing two games with a strained hamstring. Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright remain rocks in the middle of the defense.
But the defense is showing signs of atrophy. Seattle never recovered from losing Thomas to a broken leg last year, the season culminating in a playoff loss in Atlanta, the Falcons scoring on five of their first six possessions in that game.
If something similar happens on Monday, it won’t be a question of whether Seattle’s run of five consecutive playoff berths is in jeopardy with Sherman and Chancellor out, but a worry.
The Seahawks win if … they score more than 25 points. That’s going to be the new reality for this team not just because it lacks the consistent running game that was the hallmark of the offense from 2011 through 2014, but because the defense will be missing three opening-day starters: Sherman, Chancellor and Cliff Avril. Strongside linebacker Michael Wilhoite is out and defensive tackle Jarran Reed is questionable. That’s going to put even more pressure on quarterback Russell Wilson.
The Falcons win if … they’re able to gouge Seattle’s defense. The back end of Seattle’s defense has been much more sound than you’d expect, the Seahawks having allowed only four pass plays of more than 40 yards this season. They gave up nine pass plays of 40 or more yards last season. However, the run defense has been much more susceptible. Seattle has given up seven runs of 20 yards or more this season, two more than all of last season. The Seahawks have allowed two runs of more than 40 yards. They didn’t allow a single run of that length last year. Falcons running back Devonta Freeman is out with a concussion, but Tevin Coleman is a threat, and there’s no doubting the potency of an Atlanta offense that ranks No. 8 in the NFL in total yards.
Prediction: Seahawks 27, Falcons 24.
