What will it take for Seahawks’ Russell Wilson to be ranked as top-tier QB?

Look away, Seahawks fans. ESPN’s 2017 NFL Quarterback Tier Rankings are in, and you may not be happy with Russell Wilson’s landing spot.

Mike Sando’s list, comprised with input from 50 league insiders, has Seattle’s quarterback coming in at No. 10. Here’s what they said:

“Many voters think Wilson needs a strong running game to function at a high level and cover for his short stature.” 

“I’m not sure he is going to sit in the pocket and sling the ball to beat you, but he is scary when he has the ball in his hands. It is hard to separate him from the run game, the defense and Marshawn (Lynch) and all that.”

Salk: Seahawks might rally around Michael Bennett and Justin Britt

Quarterbacks ranked above Wilson include Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees and Matt Ryan – and to be fair, it’s hard to argue against that group. However, 710 ESPN Seattle’s Brock and Salk took issue with the four players coming in directly ahead of Wilson in the second tier: Andrew Luck, Phillip Rivers, Matthew Stafford and Derek Carr.

Here’s a breakdown of how two of them compare to Wilson.

Andrew Luck

What they said:
Those surveyed recognized Luck’s injury history and interceptions early in his career, but most believe he belongs safely in the top 10.  Said one personnel director: “He is never out of the game. He is one of those guys, you leave too much time in the clock, you are in trouble.” Luck has been ranked higher in prior polls, but continues to be recognized as having one of the league’s highest ceilings for any quarterback.

What we said:
Andrew Luck is a player Mike Salk believed could one day be the best quarterback in NFL history. His career is far from over, but is it fair to say his body of work has surpassed that of Wilson?

Here are their career stat lines:

A) 19,078 yards, 132 touchdowns, 68 interceptions, 59.2 completion percentage, 87.3 passer rating.
B) 18,193 yards, 127 touchdowns, 45 interceptions, 64.7 completion percentage, 99.6 passer rating.

Luck, who owns the first stat line, has a 43-27 record when starting for the Colts, and is 3-3 in six playoff starts. Wilson, owner of the second, is 56-23-1 with Seattle and 8-4 in postseason appearances (including two Super Bowls).

Brock Huard took a moment to play devil’s advocate and argue what he believes is in line with the opinions of the NFL insiders who took part in the polling.

“(Luck had) 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns (in 2016), he’s led the Colts to the playoffs,” Brock said. “He’s played through an organization that’s fired a GM, got a dysfunctional head coach, dysfunctional place. That’s got no defense whatsoever, and just as poor an O-line as Russell Wilson has.

“And, Andrew Luck’s not had what Russell has. And that is 54 of Russell’s 92 starts where his defense has given up 17 points or less. Give Andrew Luck that and he’s going to win a Super Bowl, if not two. That is their estimation; that is their clue… And I would say, yeah, you want to know why? Because of the number of picks he’s given up, because of the real estate that they’ve given up, because of the way that they play.”

“But in the exact same amount of time as Russell Wilson, he has accomplished significantly less in the league,” Salk added.

Derek Carr

What they said:
Carr is quickly becoming “the next big thing at quarterback,” according to Sando. The survey cited his seven fourth-quarter comeback victories for the Raiders. Said one GM: “I think he has shown the ability to carry the team just throwing the football. You can put it in his hands and he can win the game.”

What we said:
Salk took issue with the double standard presented in the ranking of Derek Carr. Carr had a phenomenal 2016 season (3,937 yards, 28 touchdowns, six interceptions, 96.7 passer rating) but has benefited from the same support for which Wilson has been docked, according to Salk.

“How do you think Russell Wilson would do behind that O-line?” Salk said. “This is the problem, is that some of the criticism of Russell Wilson is that he’s got a good running game. Well, what did Oakland have last year? What did they have with that offensive line and Latavius Murray? They had a really good running game last year and yet, for whatever reason, we sit here and rip Russell Wilson for it. I just don’t get it.”

What would Wilson need to do to rank in the top five?

The top five quarterbacks on the list all have either appeared in or won a Super Bowl (in Brady’s case, five), earned Pro Bowl nods, have at one point led the league in passing yards, touchdowns or passer rating, and have acted as the face of a franchise for years.

Wilson, too, owns important distinctions. He has appeared in two Super Bowls, has been a three-time Pro Bowler, is a fan-favorite, and sat atop the NFL in passer rating in 2015. He also sits second behind Aaron Rodgers at career passer rating among active players. So, what would it take for Wilson to catapult himself into the top tier of quarterbacks?

According to Brock, that may never happen. It’s not because Wilson isn’t incredibly talented or accomplished – it’s because he’s a rare type of player that traditional ratings don’t always recognize.

“What it tells me very clearly is these people that have done it for decades, that have won Super Bowls, that they know, in their mind and in their estimation, the most tried and true method of being an elite quarterback in this league is playing from the pocket,” Brock said.

“In their estimation, they can find Derek Carr, and they can find Matt Ryan, and they can find Jameis Winston and Andrew Luck, and they can find these guys in the draft, and Jared Goff and all the rest of them. What they can’t find are 5-foot-10 1/2 guys that run around, that make plays with their legs, that are sustainable, that are as adept at passing as they are running. Those are hard to find. I see college football every week, I travel the country, I see them. There are spread guys; there are run guys. There are very few in the supply-and-demand chain, there are very few Russell Wilsons out there.”

What might need to happen, according to Brock, for Wilson to be seen as a dominant force by most GMs and scouts? Winning the league MVP award might do the trick. Even then, the same unconventionality that makes Wilson so successful may continue to draw skepticism.

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