Inside the numbers: T-Birds vs. Silvertips

Following a dramatic five-overtime Game 6 that ended up being the longest in Canadian Hockey League history, the Thunderbirds now know that they’ll be facing U.S. Division-rival Everett in the second round of the WHL playoffs.

It’s the matchup most were probably expecting. After all, Everett and Seattle finished first and second in the Western Conference and U.S. Division, respectively. The two teams were separated in the regular season standings by just two points. The Thunderbirds actually won two more games – 46 to Everett’s 44 – but the Silvertips’ combined 12 overtime and shootout losses to Seattle’s six gave the ‘Tips the overall point advantage.

The two teams know each other just about as well as two teams can after playing 10 times during the regular season. Seattle went 6-4-0-0 against the ‘Tips, while Everett finished with a head-to-head record of 4-4-1-1.

Here’s a by-the-numbers look at how the two teams stack up.

3. In head-to-head matchups this season, the two teams were separated by just three goals. The T-Birds amassed 26 scores in 10 games, compared to Everett’s 23. This is far below both teams’ regular-season average, when the ‘Tips were scoring at a rate of 3.18 goals per game and the T-Birds were netting 3.51 scores per game. This figures to be a series heavily focused on defense, with Everett relying on a strong backend led by Carter Hart and Noah Juulsen and Seattle hoping to continue the stellar defensive play that saw the Tri-City Americans score just eight goals in four first-round games.

The expectation is that most games in this series will be played very close and one mistake could end up being the difference. Fortunately for Seattle, they’ve fared much better than Everett in one-goal games. The T-Birds are 16-8-1-0 in the 25 one-goal games they’ve been a part of, while the ‘Tips are 11-8-9-3 in 31 such contests.

24. The number of periods the Silvertips played in the first round, highlighted by their marathon five-overtime Game 6 that clinched the series for them. Combine those five extra periods with the extra period they played in Game 5 (granted the overtime periods in which the game-winners were scored weren’t full periods) and you have a team that essentially played eight full games in round one – double the number of games that Seattle played. While Seattle probably would have preferred a Game 7 between the two teams on Tuesday and therefore less time to rest before their second-round series, fatigue should be far less of a factor for the Thunderbirds, who have been off since Friday night, than it will be for the Silvertips. However, since the teams’ rinks are separated by just 47 miles, travel doesn’t figure to be much of a factor at all.

.391. The percentage of Everett’s goals against Seattle during the regular season that came on the power play. The ‘Tips converted on nine of their 41 power play chances, a 22 percent success rate. Seattle averaged nearly one full power play less per contest, scoring on six of their 32 chances in head-to-head matchups this season, which accounted for 23 percent of their total goals against the ‘Tips. It will be crucial for both teams, but Seattle in particular, to stay out of the penalty box. Both teams feature a strong penalty kill, with Everett ranking first in the WHL during the regular season and Seattle finishing third. Their power plays were middle of the pack – the T-Birds finished eighth while the ‘Tips finished 11th – but Seattle’s power play came on strong at the end of the year and was dominant against Tri-City in round one, converting on eight of 20 opportunities.

61. Related to the previous statistic, the Silvertips were shorthanded 225 times during the regular season, 61 fewer than the next least-penalized team, the Kamloops Blazers. Whether you believe Everett is favored or not when it comes to penalization, they are a disciplined team that does a good job of limiting the opposition’s man advantages. Combine that with a defensively-focused game plan, one of the best goalies in the CHL and a first-team Western Conference all-star in Juulsen and you have a club that makes it incredibly difficult to score goals against them. In round one, the Victoria Royals scored 12 goals in 24 periods of hockey, just once every two periods.

.750 and .763. Seattle and Everett’s home winning percentages during the regular season, respectively. On the road, Seattle’s winning percentage was .639, while Everett’s was .597. The Silvertips will have home-ice advantage in the series, playing games one, two, and possibly five and seven at Xfinity Arena. Both teams have been significantly better at home, and that’s remained true in head-to-head matchups. Seattle was only able to steal one game from Everett on the road, a 4-3 overtime victory on January 14. The T-Birds won every game between the two teams at ShoWare Center, one of those being a 4-3 shootout victory on January 6.

Extrapolate these numbers over the past five years and similar themes remain. At ShoWare Center, Seattle is 13-5-1-1 while Everett is just 7-9-2-2. At Xfinity Arena, the ‘Tips are 13-4-1-2 while the T-Birds are 7-12-1-0.

10. The number of combined first-round games missed by Mathew Barzal, Ryan Gropp and Rylan Toth. Missing players is nothing new for Seattle, nor is a concerted team effort in stepping up to replace those valuable missing pieces. Barzal and Gropp combined for 163 points during the regular season while Toth led the WHL in wins with 36. As of now, we don’t know the status of any of the three, although signs point to improvement from both Barzal and Toth with Gropp being more of a wildcard at this point.

Round one saw Donovan Neuls and Alexander True replace Barzal and Gropp on the first line and those two combined for 16 points. While they’ve both been long-time contributors for Seattle, seeing them put up those kinds of offensive numbers was a welcomed surprise.

Everett, on the other hand, is healthy for the most part. In Game 6 against Victoria, their scratches were Ian Walker, Montana Onyebuchi, Dawson Butt, Mark Liwiski, Devon Skoleski, Ethan Browne and Gianni Fairbrother. Of those seven scratches, Butt, Liwiski, Browne, and Fairbrother combined to play in seven games during the regular season with Liwiski playing in none. Of the other three, Onyebuchi had six points in 47 games and was a minus-9; Walker had five points in 42 games and an even rating; and Skoleski, perhaps the biggest missing piece, had 34 points in 65 contests.

The bottom line is that when it comes to health, Everett has the clear advantage. We’re unclear when any of Seattle’s three injured players will return, but Barzal’s 79 points alone nearly double the output combined of Everett’s scratches.