THUNDERBIRDS

T-Birds notebook: Stats, snubs and the Barzal watch

Oct 20, 2016, 12:36 PM | Updated: 1:28 pm

One of the WHL's top defensemen, Ethan Bear was snubbed by Hockey Canada again (Brian Liesse)...

One of the WHL's top defensemen, Ethan Bear was snubbed by Hockey Canada again (Brian Liesse)

(Brian Liesse)

It goes without saying that the Thunderbirds 2-4-0-1 start is not what the club was hoping for.

After seven games, the defending U.S. Division and Western Conference champs find themselves in dead last with just five points. While it’s too early in the season to panic, the start is worthy of an eyebrow raise or two.

The early season struggles have been pretty obvious and it starts with their lack of production on both the power play and penalty kill. Their play while five-on-five has been better but they still are struggling to score goals. Last year’s team averaged 3.16 goals per game and after seven games in this campaign is only averaging 2.29 per contest.

But it’s not all bad for the T-Birds as they head into another weekend with back-to-back games.

Their underlying possession numbers are actually pretty solid which suggests that they are driving the play in most games but just haven’t converted enough. Seattle has an Estimated Fenwick Close of 52.9 which suggests that on the average they have out shot and out-possessed their opponents. Seattle has averaged just over 28 shots per game while only allowing 25.

The Fenwick number indicates the number of shot attempts at the goal — including missed shots — and having a number over 50 percent means that Seattle is driving the play more than its chasing. Over a long period of time that should result in more goals being scored. If you have the puck more than your opponent, you’re going to get more shots and therefore more goals.

This was evident in Seattle’s last three games, all losses. They heavily out shot the Spokane Chiefs in a 3-1 loss last Tuesday and if not for the play of Spokane goalie Dawson Weatherill, should have won. They followed that up by out shooting Prince George and Everett only to come up on the short end of the scoreboard.

Granted, these numbers are meaningless if Seattle can’t execute on the ice. That starts with getting traffic in front of the net and picking up greasy goals. After the T-Birds lost in Everett Saturday night, head coach Steve Konowalchuk said that he felt the team was chasing ‘cute’ goals too much. With the way they control the puck, getting traffic and getting greasy should result in the puck in the net more often.

Here’s the latest surrounding the team:

Bear snubbed again

Hockey Canada seems to have a blind spot when it comes to Seattle defenseman Ethan Bear. On Thursday, the WHL rosters for the upcoming Canada-Russia series were announced and surprisingly, Bear was not on it. The series with the Russians is the second step that Canada uses to select its World Junior Championship team.

Bear was left off Canada’s summer camp as well and there is no logical explanation for it.

Canada likes to stock its roster with 19 year 0ld drafted players. Bear is a signed, drafted prospect of the Edmonton Oilers who just happens to be in his 19 year old season. He also is coming of a season that saw him pot 19 goals and 65 points in 69 games, numbers that were among the top WHL defensmen.

Team WHL will face the Russian National Junior team in a pair of games starting Nov. 7th in Prince George and concluding Nov. 8th in Edmonton. Last year, Mathew Barzal and Ryan Gropp both represented the WHL.

Barzal watch continues

Until the New York Islanders make an official move, the ghost of Barzal returning will still loom large for the T-Birds. Barzal has played in one game with New York and has been a healthy scratch for three others. The NHL club can take their time making a decision on whether or not they want to keep Barzal for the entire season or not. He can appear in nine games before his entry-level rookie contract kicks in. Historically, if a team feels that their prospect won’t play enough to develop they will send him back to junior before the 10th game to avoid burning that first year of control.

Being a healthy scratch for three out of four games isn’t a good trend towards Barzal making the team but until they hear differently, the T-Birds are going to have to move forward without their star center.

New York’s next game will be Friday as they host the Arizona Coyotes.

Portland and Kelowna in town for the weekend

Seattle will open this weekend’s play Friday night at the ShoWare Center with the third match up with Portland. Seattle has dropped the two previous games by a combined score of 13-4. The Winterhawks power play has feasted on the T-Birds struggling penalty kill so staying out of the box will be key. Portland’s Cody Glass is a player to watch as the speedy forward is tied for the lead league in points with 19.

Saturday night the T-Birds will host the Kelowna Rockets for the first time since last spring’s exciting double-overtime Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals. The stakes will be dialed down for this one but both clubs have stumbled out of the blocks this year and will be looking to get things going. Like Seattle, Kelowna has struggled with special teams, ranked 17th on the power play and 21st in killing penalties. The game could come down to who can solve their issues first.

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T-Birds notebook: Stats, snubs and the Barzal watch