Seahawks’ remaining schedule no longer as tough as it first seemed
Oct 12, 2016, 9:41 AM | Updated: 9:50 am
The teams on the Seahawks' remaining schedule are only 27-25, including the Panthers at 1-4. (AP)
(AP)
I’ve always been a big advocate of studying the schedules of NFL teams.
Although a lot of NFL people will tell you the schedule doesn’t mean much, I contend it does. I had a conversation years ago with former Rams coach Dick Vermeil and he agreed. His premise was that it’s OK to go .500 against teams with winning records, but the key is to not play too many games against winning teams.
As an example, he said a team can reach the Super Bowl by going 3-3 against opponents with winning records, leaving 10 games against teams with losing records. If that opportunistic team wins the winnable games, it could go 13-3 and get a high seed in the playoffs.
What brings this to mind is how the Seahawks’ schedule is all of a sudden working out in their favor. Coming into the season, the Seahawks had the sixth-toughest schedule in the league, playing teams with a combined 2015 record of 139-117, a .543 winning percentage.
As it turns out, the quick fall of the NFC South has eased the Seahawks’ schedule. The Panthers are 1-4, and only eight teams since 1990 have made the playoffs with such a record. The Saints are 1-3. The Buccaneers are 2-3. The Seahawks on Sunday host the Falcons, who are running away with the division at 4-1.
Looking at the remaining schedule, the Seahawks have a decent chance of finishing with a 12-4 record, and if things break right, they could do a little bit better.
Let’s look down the line.
Big picture: The Seahawks’ remaining schedule is very manageable. They play teams with a combined record of 27-25, which is the 18th-toughest remaining schedule in the league. Six of the remaining 10 games are against winning teams: Atlanta, Buffalo, Philadelphia, New England, Green Bay and Los Angeles. The beauty for the Seahawks is that four of those games are at CenturyLink Field, where they have a significant home-field advantage. Road games against the Patriots and Packers will be tough. Still, it’s reasonable to think that the Seahawks should be able to go 4-4 or 5-3 on the road this season. If the Seahawks can go 7-1 or 8-0 at home, they have a great chance of getting a No. 1 or a No. 2 seed.
NFC South going south in the standings: For the past two years, the NFC East and the AFC South have been the league’s worst divisions. This year, thanks in part to quarterbacks Dak Prescott and Carson Wentz, the NFC East has improved and the NFC South has gotten worse. Defense has been the reason. NFC South teams are surrendering between 28 and 32.5 points a game. The strength of the Seahawks is not allowing points on defense. If the Seahawks hold the Falcons to 17 points or fewer, they have a great chance to win because Russell Wilson would have a decent chance of getting touchdown drives against Atlanta’s defense.
Finishing off the AFC East schedule: The Seahawks’ win over the Jets was huge because it was on the road and sets up the chance of going at least 3-1 against the AFC East. The Seahawks won the opener against the Dolphins, so they’re 2-0 against the division. They host the Bills on a Monday night and have the Patriots game on the road. Going 3-1 against both the NFC South and AFC East division would give them a 6-2 record in those non-division games.
Non-common games: As the second-place finisher in the NFC West last season, the Seahawks play two games against teams that finished second in their divisions – at Green and home against the Eagles. Even a split in those games could set up a possible 12-win season.
The NFC West: Next Sunday night’s game against the Cardinals should tip off how the Seahawks will do in the division. If they can steal a road win, they might be able to go 4-2 or maybe 5-1 in division. That could be the key to getting 12 wins or maybe more. The Seahawks beat the 49ers at home and should have a great chance of getting the sweep in San Francisco. But a road win against the Cardinals could open the door to finishing better than 4-2 in the division.
Coming into the season, the NFC North had the scheduling advantage. Those teams played the NFC East and the AFC South. But the drop-off in the NFC South now gives teams in the NFC West the advantage.
Want more John Clayton? Listen on-demand to his weekday and Saturday shows as well as his “Cold Hard Facts” and “Clayton’s Morning Drive” segments on 710 ESPN Seattle. Also, check out his all-new “Schooled” podcast and look for his columns twice a week on 710Sports.com.
