3 keys: Dempsey-less Sounders look for another win over Timbers
Aug 27, 2016, 11:50 AM
(AP)
For the second time in a week, the Seattle Sounders get set to play the Portland Timbers in yet another crucial match for both teams’ playoff hopes. Last week the Timbers made the trip to Seattle, and the Sounders will make the reverse trip down I-5 on Sunday. Not only is this the Sounders’ second match against the Timbers in the past week, it’ll be their third overall after earning a 1-1 draw in Houston Wednesday.
The Sounders are surely exhausted from all the travel, but that hasn’t slowed down Brian Schmetzer’s men since he took over for Sigi Schmid last month. No matter the situation, the Sounders seem able to get up for absolutely anything lately, so an important game against a massive rival should be no different.
Davis: Lodeiro giving Sounders what they were missing
Based on the Sounders’ draw with Houston and other results from Wednesday, Seattle currently sits in eighth place in the West, one point below both the Timbers and the San Jose Earthquakes. A win against Portland would catapult the Sounders into sixth place, where they would stay going into their bye week if the Earthquakes lose or draw their match against Columbus. A loss doesn’t completely knock them out of playoff contention – they’ll still have eight games to go and a game in hand over Portland – but it would make it much more difficult.
The Timbers will be on some extra rest, as they haven’t played since their trip to Seattle last Sunday. They have no more injury concerns than they did a week ago, and the assumption is that forward Fanendo Adi will make a start, unlike last week. They’ll be boosted by their home support, but the Sounders will hope that last weekend’s drubbing will be as fresh in the Timbers’ mind as it is in their own.
Here are three keys to what should be an epic showdown in Portland on Sunday at 2 p.m. on KIRO Radio 97.3 FM:
1. Sounders will go with the same lineup as last Sunday… minus one.
The club announced on Friday that forward Clint Dempsey, who scored two goals last weekend, was being evaluated by club medical staff regarding an irregular heartbeat detected by bio-sensors in a recent match. He was ruled out of Sunday’s match, but nothing else is currently known. Other than Dempsey, I expect Schmetzer to put out the same 4-2-3-1 that won their matches against Portland, Real Salt Lake and Orlando City in recent weeks. As for who replaces Dempsey, I expect either Flaco Fernandez to come in and play on the right to push Nicolas Lodeiro inside, or Erik Friberg could come into central midfield and push Cristian Roldan up to right attacking midfield as he did on Wednesday. Even though Flaco wasn’t extremely effective against Houston, I prefer that setup to the ousting of Roldan from his partnership with Osvaldo Alonso. It’ll be interesting to see what Schmetzer goes with, especially keeping in mind the deadly Portland counterattack.
2. Will the Sounders have an answer for Adi?
Adi did not start against Seattle last weekend, and the rumor is that he was dropped from the lineup by Caleb Porter for missing the team flight out of Portland. His threat to Seattle was clear after he was substituted on later in the match; he scored Portland’s only goal of the night in injury time. Schmetzer mentioned that Roman Torres, who still hasn’t made his return to the lineup since being activated off the disabled list before the Houston match, could be a good matchup for a strong center forward like Adi. I don’t see Torres starting in such a crucial match, but I definitely think Schmetzer will bring him in to secure a lead if the Sounders get one. Otherwise, Chad Marshall will need to equal Adi in the air, and Brad Evans absolutely can’t allow mental lapses like he’s had in recent weeks against such a potent, dangerous striker.
3. Home-field advantage on full display in Cascadia.
Even though it’s often heavily debated in different sports circles, it’s hard not to agree that the Sounders, Timbers and Vancouver Whitecaps all have varying degrees of home-field advantage. Seattle regularly has the highest average attendance in MLS, and the Timbers’ often sold-out Providence Park serves as a giant metal cone of noise that could rattle even the mildest of pros. Noise like that can also influence officials, according to Stephen Dubner of “Freakonomics.” The book “Soccernomics” also touches on home-field advantage in soccer, though it does focus on international soccer rather than clubs. The authors’ data shows that in international play, home-field advantage is worth about 2/3 of a goal. “Playing at home is like having a goal’s head start in two out of every three games.” In a game of utmost importance to both teams, it’s going to be absolute pandemonium in Providence Park with the kind of noise and energy that can be felt through the radio. This is what makes Cascadia rivalries so special – two matches between two teams in two very different cities and venues have a very similar feel and energy that can provide that all-important sliver of an advantage when their team needs it the most. Will the Sounders be able to dominate enough to overcome it?
Spenser Davis also covers the Sounders for Sounder at Heart.