How can the Sounders still make the MLS Cup playoffs?
Aug 24, 2016, 12:29 PM
(AP)
Thanks to the renaissance the Sounders have had under interim head coach Brian Schmetzer in the past month, the buzz is starting to build about whether or not the team can pull off what seemed utterly impossible just a few weeks ago: make the MLS Cup playoffs.
For weeks, months even, Seattle floundered around near the bottom of the Western Conference standings, and the seeming unlikelihood of making the playoffs for the first time in their MLS franchise history led to the ousting of the only head coach they’d had in that time, Sigi Schmid. But with a combination of great results under Schmetzer and lots of favorable results in other matches involving teams in the West, the door has cracked open for the Sounders. Now they just have to kick it down.
The reason I picked this week to discuss the possibilities is because it’s a pivotal one for the Sounders’ playoff chances. Getting at least four points (especially three in Portland) before going into the international break would give the Sounders the upper hand on their fellow playoff competitors. If San Jose also loses to New England, they’ll jump both the Earthquakes and the Timbers and land in a playoff spot for the first time in 2016. But it doesn’t stop there – the Sounders will still have eight matches to play after the bye week, many of which they’ll absolutely need to get results from.
There are tons of scenarios, many of which require the Sounders to win all their remaining home matches and get a couple of results on the road. If they are unable to secure their own destiny with their own results, the Sounders will need teams in the East to scalp as many of their Western Conference rivals as possible.
Based on points per game and the current Western Conference standings, I estimate that the Sounders will need to finish the season with a minimum of 45 points. A much more secure number would be 48, but it’s still not definite. Of course, winning every single match left this season would be ideal, but pretty unrealistic.
Including Wednesday’s match against Houston, here is (in my opinion) a realistic projection of the run the Sounders could go on in order to reach a minimum of 45 points by the end of the regular season.
Aug. 24 at Houston: Draw, 31 points
Aug. 28 at Portland: Draw, 32
Sept. 10 at San Jose: Draw, 33
Sept. 17 vs. Vancouver: Win, 36
Sept. 25 at Los Angeles: Loss, 36
Sept. 28 vs. Chicago: Win, 39
Oct. 2 at Vancouver: Loss, 39
Oct. 12 vs. Houston: Win, 42
Oct. 16 at Dallas: Loss, 42
Oct. 23 vs. Salt Lake: Win, 45
This is a realistic, if slightly pessimistic, view of this run. Even if they don’t beat the Timbers on Sunday, they could still jump them in the standings if Portland continues to play poorly on the road. A couple of results here could conceivably be different and give the Sounders a much more secure chance of cementing sixth place and a spot in the playoffs. Seattle could potentially beat Portland and/or San Jose on the road, one of which would help the Sounders jump both of them – and of course wins against both would be absolutely tremendous for the Sounders’ chances.
While it can seem a little confusing, think of it this way: if the Sounders can win every single home match left in the season, get a handful of draws and a win on the road, their chances of securing a spot in the playoffs are extremely likely. A few weeks ago, it seemed like it would take a miracle to get the Sounders to this position. Now, it looks to be just within their grasp.
Spenser Davis also covers the Sounders for Sounder at Heart.