Struck by lightning? Nope. Mariners’ 9-run 7th was even more unlikely
Jun 3, 2016, 12:06 PM | Updated: 12:19 pm
1 in 3 — Odds that a female born today in Britain will live to be 100 years old.
1 in 25 — Odds that you will win a prize – any prize – in the current Powerball format.
1 in 117 — Odds the IRS audited a 2014 tax return.
1 in 12,000 — Approximate odds of being struck by lightning in your lifetime.
1 in 118,694 — Odds of the Mariners’ run of seven consecutive two-out hits in last night’s historical comeback against the Padres.
Now, this should be clarified. Those odds are based strictly on this year’s major-league batting statistics from the seven Seattle hitters who logged those seven straight two-out hits for Seattle on Thursday night in San Diego. It doesn’t take into account the specific pitching matchups, the park or even the recent history of those seven hitters.
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It wasn’t quite as unlikely as being struck by lightning this year (1 in 960,000) or to die from a shark attack (1 in 3,748,067), but it was pretty darn improbable that seven straight Mariners would log base hits in seven consecutive plate appearances with two outs in the seventh, driving in a total of nine runs and setting Seattle on its ear.
“Baseball you never know.” That’s what third-base coach Manny Acta posted on Twitter along with a picture of Dae-Ho Lee wearing the Swelmet that has become part of the team’s traveling equipment.
Except statistics do allow us to put numbers to just how unlikely that run of seven straight hits was, and determining probability is actually a pretty straightforward process even if it is going to be eye-glazingly boring to explain. Also worth noting: I didn’t take a single math class while attending the University of Washington.
Still reading? OK. You’ve been warned.
Start with Kyle Seager. He came to the plate with the bases loaded in the seventh inning. Nelson Cruz had just struck out for the second out of the inning. He had 58 hits in 223 plate appearances entering that seventh-inning at-bat, giving him a 26-percent chance of getting a hit, or approximately 1 in 4.
Next up was Dae-Ho Lee, who had roughly the same likelihood as Seager of getting a hit based on his 23 hits in 86 plate appearances this season (26.7 percent) entering the seventh inning. The key to understanding the probability of the Mariners’ string requires you to look at not just the likelihood of a single batter logging a hit with two outs, but to determine the likelihood that all seven would do so consecutively.
You do that by multiplying the probabilities. I’m not smart enough to explain exactly why that’s the case, I just know that’s the rule.
Think about it with a coin flip instead. What are the chances any singles toss comes up heads? Fifty percent or 0.5. To determine the chances of it coming up heads on two consecutive tosses you multiply the probability it will come up heads on the first toss (0.5) against the probability it will come up heads on the next toss (0.5). The answer is 0.25 or 1 in 4.
Seager had a 26-percent chance of getting a hit, Lee a 26.7-percent chance. The probability of both getting a hit in that scenario is determined by multiplying the Seager’s probability (0.260089686) with Lee’s probability (0.26744186). The answer is 0.06955887, which equates to 7 percent.
Next was catcher Chris Iannetta followed by Stefen Romero, Shawn O’Malley, Nori Aoki and finally Franklin Gutierrez. The sheer improbability of that chain of seven two-out hits is evident only in hindsight.
Now, it’s important to note that the statistical analysis is pretty simple here. The quality of San Diego’s bullpen is not taken into account. There’s no consideration for the possibility that the Mariners got hot, generating a momentum that carried from one batter to the next. Similarly, there’s no accounting for the possibility that the Padres’ resolve and ability eroded as the Mariners’ at-bat progressed.
Each of the Mariners’ seven consecutive two-out hits is considered as a totally independent event whose chances of success were not impacted by what preceded it.
This was the most bare-bones math to try and put a number on just how darn unlikely Seattle’s two-out rally was in the seventh inning.
Not only that, but the odds change drastically depending on the scope of statistics used. The odds listed at the top are based on this year’s major-league hitting statistics for the seven batters who logged hits. If you look at their career major-league statistics, the odds for the two-out rally improve dramatically to 1 in 45,460, which to put it in perspective is about twice as unlikely as the odds that you will have to visit the emergency room because of a golf-cart accident in your life (1 in 22,355 according to the New York Post).